Daraa… for sure…Idlib and Raqqa

Written by Nasser Kandil,

Since the liberation of Aleppo, as a prominent event that changed the equations of the war in Syria at the beginning of the term of the US President Donald Trump, the US politics along with its most prominent ally the Saudi entity and the occupation entity focused on obstructing the course of liberation in the light of the recognition of the inability to impose a counter course that retakes the lead and wages the war of changing geography at the expense of the Syrian Arab Army and its allies. Despite the media support which given to the American-Israeli strikes along with diplomatic campaign and media exaggeration it can only be classified strategically as an attempt to affect the  path that is progressing clearly; which is the restoration of the Syrian geography by the Syrian Arab army and a complete support of allies.

The talk about qualitative strikes targeted the Iranian presence in Syria or the presence of Hezbollah is as the talk about qualitative strikes that targeted the structure of the Syrian army and its air defenses or about Russian-Iranian disputes or Syrian-Russian disputes must be verified, checked, and tested; In other words, will the projects of liberation for restoring further geography continue, or is the static to put the north and south border lines under the ceiling of an equation of the seek for an understanding with Washington and meeting its conditions,  because the progress in the projects of liberation is impossible in the most difficult areas with less power, in other words it is impossible to achieve the liberation  if the force of the Syrian Arb army and its Russian and Iranian allies was not at its best and at the highest levels of coordination, integration,  and determination to wage the most brutal battles.

The importance of the American statement that warns the Syrian army from waging the battle of Daraa is that implicitly it recognizes the failure of the project of obstructing the course of liberation which started from Aleppo a year and a half ago, and thus the failure of the military strikes and the diplomatic pressures, including the seeking to confuse the relations between the parts of the Russian-Syrian-Iranian alliance as well as the American withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear understanding in achieving the goal, as the importance of the statement issued by the Russian reconciliation Center for Syria in Hmeimim Air Base about the end of the work agreement to reduce the escalation in the southern Syria unless the withdrawal of Al Nusra front from there. The parties of the agreement in the south are Russia, America, Jordan, and Israel implicitly. The statement is an announcement of the preparation of Daraa battle unless meeting the withdrawal of Al Nusra, and thus recalling the scenario of the start of Al Ghouta battle which many bet on the non-participation of Russia, but it was the widest and the most sever participation despite the international clatter.

On the northern front there is something similar politically and militarily. Sochi Summit which brought together the President Vladimir Putin and the President Bashar Al-Assad has led to  a clear equation that targets the Turkish position entitled an open partnership in the political process with new spirit entitled the recognition of a pivotal role of the Syrian state, its president and its army versus Turkish withdrawal at the rhythm of the progress of the political process otherwise the Turkish presence is illegitimate foreign occupation that must be eradicated immediately. The standard of the Turkish convergence is political and military through facilitating the joining of the armed groups affiliated to Turkey to the political solution towards the participation in a unified government under the leadership of the President Al-Assad.  While militarily, through the withdrawal of these groups out of the international road from Hama to Aleppo,  handing them over to the Syrian Arab Army and securing the opening of the Damascus-Bab Al Hawa road. This is the meaning of the equation of the political solution that paves the way for the withdrawal of the foreign forces. While in the north-east front the active military movement in Badia and the surrounding of Deir Al Zour indicates to a daily harsh confrontation between the Syrian Arab Army and the American forces that protects the units of ISIS and takes the armed Kurdish groups as a pretext of its operations. This preparation in the north paves the way for moving to a crucial political military action after the Turkish test in the north-west and after the achievement in the south.

Daraa will be the destination surely but how? The answer depends on the American-Jordanian- Israeli considerations, so either to take an initiative to end the presence of the armed groups in Daraa, to put it voluntarily under the control of the Syrian Arab Army, and to secure the opening of the Syrian-Jordanian borders or the Syrian army will start its crucial battle, so everyone has to bear the consequences, the evening of the rockets on Golan is an example if they try to obstruct.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,