Is there any forthcoming American – Israeli war?

Written by Nasser Kandil,

The political “salons” and the media analyses abounded with presenting a hypothesis of a new US- Israeli war, they varied between the hypotheses of a war against Hezbollah or against Syria or a full war that affects Iran  with them, as they varied in estimating their types between air strikes or ground invasion or both of them, but they depended on the same introductions that are summarized by two issues: First, the unprecedented media and political escalation at the highest US and Israeli levels against the forces of the resistance and governments of its axis , including the foreshadowing of war. Second, the size of the losses which will affect America and Israel if they surrender to accept the facts resulting from the developments drawn by the confrontation in Syria in particular, in addition to the growing force of Hezbollah, the development of Iranian status , and the rise of the Russian role, and thus starting from the impossibility of this surrender, it can be said that the war is an inevitable option according to the conclusion of the owners of this hypothesis which many writers and analysts from those who support the forces of the resistance and its axis talked about, the clearest of which was the writing published by a colleague and a friend  Mr.Abdul Bari Atwan the editor-in-chief of ” Rai Al Youm” newspaper.

At the beginning of his article Mr. Atwan said “Is the third war on Lebanon at its preparation phase? When will it burst out? And why does Trump commemorate the killing of “the Marines” in Beirut suddenly after 34 years? Will Hezbollah be replaced “the Islamic State” on the list of the war on terrorism after the collapse of the latter? Search for Ivanka and his husband Kouchner. At the end, he wrote “Observe the American-Israeli scenario and its expected applications on Lebanon…. It is the war, and who says else, does not know the modern US history, and is not convinced yet that Trump is more entrenched in the Israeli schemes than his former counterpart George W. Bush… the coming  days will prove that”.

Surely the discussion of the war hypotheses neither stem from the details of the circulated scenarios, since this is a detail,  nor from the estimation of the degree of the obsession of the US President Donald Trump with the Israeli interest aspirations and which are the most extreme in America, since this is indisputable, nor from the size of the historic blow and the unbearable loss which will affect America if the matters are left as they are, since this is clear, nor from the content of the recent US-Israeli escalation campaign,  and the degree of its expression of anger and indignation about what is going on, nor from the size and the victories of the Russian-Iranian-Syrian axis where Hezbollah is at its center and the size of what will result from the growing force of Hezbollah regionally in general and according to Israeli in particular. Simply the issue is to answer the question; Do America and Israel have what enable them to wage a war from which they get out in better conditions than what they are today?

Here it is not necessary to answer according to our estimates, because maybe we will be accused with exaggeration in reading the sources of power or by answering that America and Israel have already waged wars that depended on a grave error in considerations. The analysis which is certain is through what is proved by the US and Saudi behaviors and facts and which express the actual real estimation of the decision-makers in Washington and Tel Aviv and the conditions and circumstances for taking such a decision..

Did the estimations and the facts which make the war-decision change from how they were in 2013? when the US fleets came to the Mediterranean and withdrew from continuing the war-decision due to the threat of confrontation, just accepted to cover this retreat with the political solution of the Syrian chemical weapons as a moral formal compensation that the Americans know that it is valueless in making the real balances of powers which the war alone would have changed it if the calculations have allowed waging it.

Some people may answer that the matter is related to the difference between the rational administration of the former President Barack Obama and the reckless extremist leadership of the administration of the current President Donald Trump despite the differences which oppose the war-decision now more than in 2013, where neither Russians were here, nor Iran has got a lucrative deal about its nuclear file, nor Saudi Arabia has got involved in the war of Yemen, nor Turkey has become practically out of the alliance, nor the Syrian country and its army have reached and recaptured Aleppo towards Deir Al Zour. Despite all of that it is necessary to check the intentions of Trump-Netanyahu stage. This is clear in the only serious red line drawn by Trump and his administration; to prevent the connection of the forces of the axis of the resistance across the Syrian-Iraqi borders, but this red line has been violated repeatedly by the Popular Crowd, the Syrian and the Iraqi armies, and the men of the resistance along one hundred kilometers at least. Instead of going to war, Trump stripped the armed groups affiliated to him of their weapons to avoid slipping into the war.

The real scrutiny of balances as read by Washington and Tel Aviv is shown by the dealing with the  golden opportunity of war that was lost before their eyes, because they refused to get involved in it, it is through what was represented by the announcement of the secession of the Iraqi Kurdistan. It is not debatable what Masoud Al-Barazani represents for each of Washington and Tel Aviv, or what the Iraqi Kurdistan represents as a location and a status in the geography and demography and as an advanced basis for the American- Israeli project to divide hostile entities or which are difficult to control, where the unity of Iran, Syria, Turkey, and Iraq will fall by the knockout, so this will lead to the birth of an entity that includes the Kurds of the four countries that reaches to the Mediterranean and will pave the way for the disintegration of the four entities, There will be fighting popular force that will compensate the human deficit in the alliance of American and Israel and who is with them, under a sectarian title. This popular force can be joined by those who can be indulged from Syria, Iraq, Turkey, and Lebanon with the Saudi cooperation, thus there will be a military base for America and Tel Aviv on the borders of Iran that host their aircraft, eavesdropping devices, and the People’s Mujahedin of Iran (PMOI), and everyone who wants to sabotage Iran from the inside.

In addition to the inability to bear the consequences of the war-decision, the question that needs to be answered is how did Kurdistan get lost? And how did the accumulation of ten years get lost too, and who will dare after now to call again for the secession among the Kurds? Did Al-Barazani make this step without a bet on the American-Israeli support?, and did he retreat and withdraw from Kirkuk just because the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan has withdrawn its elements from it, or because he got information about what has happened in Al Soleimaniya and the offer of the last quarter by the General Qassem Soleimani, and after he made a call with the General Herbert McMaster, and received an answer that we will support you through a statement?

Today Al-Barazani leaves the rule, after the dream of the secession turned into a nightmare for the Kurds, because Al-Barazani is aware that he was defeated in the war and everything is over, he waged the last US- Israeli wars, because the one who did not wage the war under the title of the Kurdish secession and “the right of the people in self-determination” and has all the golden opportunities which give hopes of making balances or even to achieve victory will not wage it while everything indicates to loss and failure.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,