Lebanese allies and regional functions of the Kurdish secession

Written by Nasser Kandil,

The domino game which is launched by the referendum concerning the secession of the Iraqi Kurdistan is not restricted neither with what it will lead as igniting dormant  independent projects in other areas and regions in Iraq and among the Sunni and the Shiite groups which Saudi Arabia is keen to sponsor, nor with the pushing which is provided by the Kurdish sticking in Syria to the federalism and being strengthened by a military force which is under American cover in exchange of a cover for the Americans’ staying inside the Syrian territories, nor with what the referendum will lead as a declaration of new stage in the region, which a new mapping in it has become available, knowing that the example of the federalism tempts the forces which aspire to exploit the Kurdish noise and which are still in the de-escalation zones in Syria unable to rebel militarily, but they have the incentives to seek formulas that allow them to administer the areas which they snatch from the Syrian geography, but with what it provides in the region as stimulating new political background despite that the referendum will not be culminated with a declaration of a Kurdish state.

When the signs of the size of the Saudi and the Israeli adoption of the Kurdish secession in Iraq and the encouragement of the Kurdish armed privacy in Syria become clear, then we have to recheck the real US position towards the future of the major settlements in the region, and whether the new adventure is an expression of the last US long –term pressing paper that the gambler President Donald Trump decided to play in response to the advices of its military and intelligence, as we have to recheck the meaning of the repetitive visits to Erbil and the security and the economic relations which some Lebanese parties made betting on the Saudi choice as on the US choice previously with the leadership of the Kurdistan region in Iraq, moreover we have to discover the opportunities of turning the Kurdish areas into bases of the opponent alliance of Syria, the resistance, and Iran in order to ease the pressure on Israel and to ease the embarrassment caused by the  presence of Israel at the forefront to the groups of Washington.

Some information says that the origin of the Saudi crisis with Qatar has started from Riyadh summit which was led by the US President Donald Trump where there was a debate in its backstage about how to confront Iran and the importance of the cooperation with the Kurdish aspirations for secession, because it represents a strategic value in exhausting Iran and its allies in Iraq and Syria. Qatar has objected that out of solidarity with Turkey and its concerns, so the acceleration of Turkey and Iran to prevent overthrowing Qatar was a result of that consideration. Therefore the expectations of the path of escalation and calm in the Saudi-Qatari file depend on the degree of the progress or the retreat of the Saudi investment which is supported by Israel on the project of the Kurdish secession.

The pressing paper which the American will present if he found a reluctance at the forces of the resistance axis is the call to barter between the choice of a long war of attrition or the acceptance of a weak country in each of Iraq and Syria that preserves for the Kurds a high degree of privacy which they enjoy today especially at the security and the diplomatic level whatever were their legal names. while Israel and Saudi Arabia meet on an equation of barters of another kind its basis is the right of self-determination, the one who sticks to the right of self-determination of the Palestinian people to establish their country will be met with a similar right of self-determination of the Kurds in Iraq by Israel, and the one who wants the right of self-determination in the form of the regime of Bahrain will be met with a similar right of self-determination of the Kurds in Syria by Saudi Arabia.  So the Saudi-Israeli alternative is keeping everything as it is instead of opening Pandora’s Box which is full of surprises.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,