Netanyahu between tunnels and sea gas

Written by Nasser Kandil,

Perhaps, it is surprising that the government of the occupation entity and its prime minister decided to focus on Lebanon which is the most dangerous front, after the developments of the confrontation in Syria and Gaza were not at their favor. Thinking of the war on Gaza was the priority that was declined after last month’s tests and the emergence of the cornet and the heavy and accurate missiles in the possession of the resistance there. And the sporadic escalation through the air raids was the best choice on the Syrian front before the positioning of S-300 missiles network which can lead to uncontrolled confrontations in case the fall of Israeli planes. Furthermore, the emergence of technical integration achieved by the Syrian army regarding the components of its air defense enahnced the ability of deterrence without resorting to reveal the secrets of S-300 and its positions. So does the front of Lebanon become easier for escalation?

While keeping up Netanyahu’s campaign toward the north tunnels the analysts in the occupation entity agreed on four things. First, Netanyahu is at the political and judicial tunnel, and the campaign is just a way to preoccupy the public opinion and media with what is a security danger. Second, Israel is unable to get involved in any war on Lebanon and it tries to avoid any confrontation, otherwise it could have control on the tunnels far from media and got through them to beyond the borders of Lebanon and carried out security actions against Hezbollah or it could blow them up inside the Lebanese and Palestinian territories. Third, the campaign of tunnels is a tactical one to start the negotiation with Lebanon on two practical tunnels namely UNIFEL and the US Embassy and which is under the responsibility of Lebanese parties that are not in conformity with the resistance and some of them feel hostile against Hezbollah, therefore, the Israeli threat can be employed in pressures that if they did not affect Israel directly they can confuse Hezbollah and behold it the responsibility of the threats on Lebanon and that is enough in itself. Fourth and the most important, relies on the certainty of the entity’s leaders that the negotiation which started on the security across borders will pave the way for demarcating the land and sea borders. As much as the occupation can make formal concessions regarding the land borders, it will strive to resolve the sea borders, because it is related to gas issue which the entity’s leaders are doing their best to make progress in its investment and development.

It is not possible to ignore the progress made by the Israelis in the investment of gas, as well as the success of the efforts of the Lebanese internal disruption in finding a temporal difference between Lebanon and Israel that lasts for two years and maybe more in the light of the efforts of disrupting the government, as it is not possible to ignore the Israeli need for stability in the gas issue. According to the international companies which are responsible for the exploration, extraction, and pumping the legal stability has become a condition for the current stages of investment, and for the European investors whom Israel is seeking to attract in a strategic pipeline project that pumps the Israeli gas to Cyprus, Greece, and Italy as a first stage.

It is striking that the Israeli harassment which will change its titles under the ceiling of avoiding escalation is arranged through Gulf coordination that is expressed by the Emirati funding of the study of the gas pipeline to Europe, knowing that the value of the announced funding is 100 million dollars. Lebanon is not far from the Gulf eyes directly or through Lebanese parties.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,