Putin –Trump summit after the Saudi deterioration
Written by Nasser Kandil,
Despite the merciless escalating dates which promise of more US escalation rounds against Russia, the US National Security Advisor John Bolton stayed for two additional days in Moscow waiting for a meeting with the Russian President Vladimir Putin. He asked for an urgent summit with the US President Donald Trump, which was determined within two weeks, so what is the reason of such an acceleration to hold a summit at the peak of the confrontation, despite the talk about the US withdrawal from the treaty of the strategic missiles signed in 1987, and despite the US preparation for the 4th of November; a date of what is called by Washington a crucial package of sanctions on Iran to prevent it from selling oil and gas, and despite the high ceilinged language used by Washington against Moscow.
The seeking for a Russian-American summit was not Russian, while Russia is receiving the signs of the American escalation, along with the statements that describe the Russian decision of deploying advanced air defense networks in Syria as a dangerous act, and Washington’s accusations of Moscow’s lack of cooperation to get Iran and Hezbollah out of Syria. The question is how to reconcile between the escalating path which forms a collective diagram line of the American steps in the joint files with Moscow and the seeking for an urgent summit which has one of two functions; either to send a final threat to Moscow before getting involved in a comprehensive major confrontation and showing the magnitude of the American serious intentions in waging such a confrontation, and thus it will be the last opportunity in front of Russia to regress to avoid the confrontation and to draw a balance that grants Washington the upper hand in the disputing files or the intentions of Washington to retreat and to adapt to new equations, and thus paving the way for understandings and settlements that are far from the escalation language and its titles.
The Russian reluctance in determining a date for Bolton’s meeting with Putin was to know the reasons for holding an urgent summit and its goals, especially because Moscow was always refusing holding a general summit that does not lead to understandings or compromises. The consent to hold a summit within two weeks means that this summit is the final opportunity before the comprehensive confrontation, a summit for opening the door for compromises, and to consider that the American escalation as a media message which Washington wants to send to Moscow as an exit of escalation. But this requires an answer to the question: did Washington lose the confidence in its escalating steps and that it fears the loss of the prestige of adopting further escalation while it enters a practical path for its escalating steps for which it spent time and efforts?
The question coincides with the beginning of the American sanctions on Iran and the development of new situation in Syria that is expressed by the balance of the air deterrence against Israel and the path of Idlib which paves the way for ending the division in Syria and suggests a new future and new formulas for the political solution under a clear Russian ceiling, that requires from Washington to choose between the adaptation to this big change in Syria or to decide to confront it without any military confrontation. Most importantly, is that Washington felt of the strategic retreat in the sources of strength of its main allies in the region Israel and Saudi Arabia, along with the retreat of the success of its vision about the exclusive political confrontation with Iran represented by the deal of the century after the Saudi failure in securing a Palestinian partner in the deal and the dismantling of the traditional alliance of Washington which Europe, Turkey, and Pakistan are its main pillars and the Iranian nuclear understanding is its most important test.
The Saudi situation seems the main change that imposes the urgent summit. President Trump did not hide his dependence on Riyadh as a main ally against Iran. Therefore, the Saudi situation which affected America and created facts that cannot be ignored imposes the understanding with Moscow as an inevitable choice even through compromises that apparently calm down the escalation, but paving the way for deep understandings that will be revealed at the right time.
The Saudi post- deterioration summit is not as what was before.
Translated by Lina Shehadeh,