Saudi Arabia and Turkey are following Moscow…. What about Israel?

Written by Nasser Kandil,

The Russian dynamic diplomacy has a rare efficiency that is able to create complex formulas and levels to cope with the military action which the Russian air forces perform in high efficiency in supporting the movement of the Syrian army and its prominent allies Iran and Hezbollah. The first mission of the diplomacy is to provide a protection to the forces of the alliance in order to continue obtaining achievements, because the experience says that during the past years the diplomatic progress comes only from the outcome of what is presented in the field as achievements, just for that, the disappointment was the result of every effort that tried to tempt Moscow or intimidate it hoping to affect its alliance with Iran and Hezbollah. Under this ceiling the diplomacy has to search for bets caused by the erosion in the front of the opponents, the disruption of its project, and the readiness of its parties to search for special costs outside the alliance which brought them together one day to overthrow Syria.

The first changes which were made by the Russian diplomacy to its plan comparing with the last two years are related first to its relationship with America, it tried to address America in another language that does not include a call for Washington to ensure the abidance of its allies by the content of the Russian-American understanding, but common controls that were formulated on the edge of the abyss by the threat of the full confrontation whenever Washington tries to draw a red line that threatens the progress of the Syrian army and its allies especially Iran and Hezbollah, and to convince Washington with the equation of the final line “ Syrian country under the leadership of its president and army and new government and constitution that are followed by elections” in exchange of cooperation in giving Washington an opportunity to obtain victories that it needs on ISIS in  the Syrian areas , without provoking it in a way that the allies have the desire and the ability to do so. This protection is in exchange of the game of race towards the geography occupied by ISIS within controls that prevent the strikes outside the agreed range. This has been expressed by the Americans in the understanding of the calmness in the south by withdrawing their militias towards stopping money and weapons from the hands of everyone who continues fighting the Syrian army and lifting the cover on him. Moscow is confident that this race will lead to a great victory in favor of Syria and its allies starting from Deir Al Zour towards Boukamal and the banks of the Euphrates.

Moscow left the illusions given by the Americans to the Kurds about the formation of special entity, it continued its dull relationship with them waiting for the transformation which will be made by the reach of the Syrian army and its allies to the heart of the region which the Americans promised the Kurdish leaderships that it will be a forbidden area in front of the Syrian army and its allies, thus the call to Geneva and Astana will be the salvation for them,  and where the Kurdish leadership is presented as welcomed main partner in the political solution, where Turkey is ambushing from the western side and Iran is ambushing from the eastern side. The Syrian army will not leave any area outside its control after the progress line from the south to the north is narrowing the privacy area a day by day. The diplomacy has made out of the Turkish failure in the sultanate project and the Turkish concern from the Kurdish privacy a dynamic continuous basis to get Turkish position that bears the consequences of a bet entitled “ Turkish responsibility to resolve the situation in Idlib and Al Nusra front, in exchange of a Russian guarantee that includes the allies, not to tolerate with the political and security Kurdish privacy on the Turkish borders, towards linking the Kurdish regular disarmament with the exit of the Turks from the Syrian geography and the return of the exclusiveness of the regular arms to the Syrian country and its military and security institutions.

As regards Saudi Arabia, the Russian diplomacy accumulated the failures of the project led by Washington to overthrow Syria, where Saudi Arabia took the lead, it aroused doubts about the cohesion of the front on which the Saudis depend from Washington to Paris, London, and Ankara, it accumulated moreover the financial and moral costs of the Yemeni war and the failure which Saudi Arabia  reaps, this failure gets wider and exerts pressure on the rulers of Riyadh, then the emergence of the crisis with Qatar as a Saudi dream that was fed by the American promises, but they saw it fell with the Iranian and the Turkish red lines that got the Russian encouragement. Till the equation of Saudi Arabia became the continuation of the war in Yemen and the disruption of the solutions in Syria in exchange of getting a cover for a solution with Qatar that makes Saudi Arabia has the upper hand. Moscow prevented turning Qatar into a bite in the gas market in favor of Saudi Arabia, it restricted the coverage by classifying the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist organization in the UN Security Council, this was a demand that Moscow had previously promised to Egypt and was wanted by Syria. That movement started from Cairo by the understanding on the participation of the Army of Islam in the calm of Ghouta away from Al Nusra and ISIS, it was culminated by the visit of the Russian Foreign Minister to Riyadh, but the results will become clear with the visit of the King Salman to Russia.

Israel alone feels and recognizes that the Russian diplomacy did not form a place for it in the new equation. The giving up of the role of the troublemaker in the region and the acceptance of the Syrian solution according to the Russian vision is not enough to achieve the demand of Israel of alienating Hezbollah and Iran away from the borders, but there is another cost that is related to the withdrawal from Golan. This makes the Russian reading of the Israeli tampering in Syria and Lebanon a declaration of the refusal of the withdrawal from the occupied Syrian and the Lebanese territories as a cost of the security demand on the borders, maybe without knowing Israel gives whom it is afraid from, at the forefront Hezbollah the opportunity to drive Israel to war entitled “the liberation of Golan and Shebaa Farms, as the Israeli military analysts Alex Fishman said. This war will unify the Lebanese and the Syrians; it will ignite the Arab and the Islamic street, and will pave the way for Palestinian variables that none knows their end”.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,