The Iranian threat to Israel and the US war

Written by Nasser Kandil,

The well-informed resources of what is going on in the corridors of the major decisions centers  related to the developments of the region  assure that there is a relation between the Israeli raid on Al-Taifour Airport near Homs which targeted a headquarter of an Iranian leadership in Syria and the US-Western mobilization for a war on Syria, they presented many  possibilities; either the threat of war and the preparation for a fiery maneuver is to cover the Israeli raid, or the raid was the first shot in the war, in order to test the air defense of Syria and its allies and how they deal with similar raids, or whether the raid was the intended war and the rest was a  long media  campaign where the political settlements come under the title of ending the tension which means implicitly a commitment to the calming and the Iranian commitment not to respond to the Israeli raid.

The Iranian leadership does not depend on analyses in its tasks as much as it depends on facts. The facts refer that Iran has been exposed to a direct Israeli targeting as a declaration of war, so it must deal with it at that basis, what has happened as the US threat will remain a political media event till it becomes a reality, therefore the Iranian priority is to respond to the Israeli challenge. That challenge was not described by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah coincidently but to publicize the content of the message to the Americans and the Israelis, that what the Israelis did was a historic event in the events of the Middle East, so what will follow it will not be as what preceded it. The Israelis have gone so far and targeted the presence of a major country, they did not experience how it behaves in such cases, they will experience resounding response and they will pay the cost along with those who are trying to support them and engage with them in the confrontation which they will do nothing with it before Iran’s response. Iran is taking into consideration what Washington announced; that it notified

The same resources dealt with the scene on the basis of the Iranian position which Russia has been notified with at a high level. The consultation required many contacts between the President Vladimir Putin and Hassan Rohani, followed by contacts between President Putin and the Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and contacts between President Putin and the US President Donald Trump. The US threats to Syria were considered as the sparkle that would ignite the region and grant the opportunity to accelerate the Iranian response against Israel which might be as a war. When the senior adviser to the Supreme Leader Ali Akbar Velayati went to Damascus, he expressed the conceptions of the Iranian leadership to the Syrian President and thus the positions were coordinated.

The region  as described by the resources is at a hot tin, where the US threats to Syria form the media confrontation, while there was a big decision that has been taken in Tehran that Israel should pay the cost and must bear its tampering with a major country that draws alone the rules of engagement. While the talk is about the limits of the US strike to Syria and how its consequences can be controlled, the resources say that the real search is about the magnitude and the type of the Iranian strike to Israel and how its repercussions will be controlled, but the length of the consultations, the political speech,  and keeping the US threat on the table were to postpone the Iranian response that might ignite a war that Washington and Saudi Arabia fear as much as feared by Israel, because a painful strike might ignite a war that Iran wanted in order to impose a new rhythm on the region, that puts its government in front of different entitlements, and puts its people in front of new meanings of the Palestinian cause. Therefore, any US military movement will grant the opportunity to make the Iranian strike against Israel closer to a comprehensive war, so it would be easier for Iran to proceed in the war decision if Washington decided to abolish the nuclear understanding.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,