Will the Saudi deterrence succeed after Boukamal and before Hodeidah?

Written by Nasser Kandil,

It seems that the bilateral imposed by facts, realities, and balances of forces based on the exclusion of any American – Saudi – Israeli foolishness that may lead to major war on one hand, And on the other hand, it based also on the need of this alliance which loses its sites successively for a war which it must choose its location, circumstances, and its calculations well in a way that ensures not to go to forbidden major war on one hand, and which ensures on the other hand  a valuable adjustment in the balances of forces which are strongly  in favor of the axis of the resistance, through its governments, its forces, its Russian ally, and the results of all the previous battles.

All the hypotheses for this complicated equation have been presented, as the experience of Kurdistan and supporting the secession in it with all its temptations, Boukamal, and the hypothesis of a limited war in the southern of Syria or in the southern of Lebanon. All of these are shortcuts for the comprehensive war. The intension on an American red line that prevents the convergence of the Syrian and the Iraqi armies and the forces of the resistance in Boukamal means getting involved in a war with Syria, Iran, Hezbollah, and the popular crowd of Iraq supported by Russia, while to stand firmly to protect the secession project in the Iraqi Kurdistan seemed a way that its end would be an open war with Iran, Iraq, and Turkey at least, while the war in the southern of Syria or in the southern of Lebanon will put Israel under the pressure of thousands of missiles from Lebanon ,Syria, and Iran.

The wars are not determined by the imprudent sons or those who took adventures and lost gambling as the loss in the war of Yemen, especially in an accurate moment that does not bear fatal mistakes, all the mistakes can be deadly, just for that each of the US President Donald Trump,, the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman and the Head of the occupation government Benjamin Netanyahu practices his game in his own  way but within controls and boundaries that are drawn by the US decision-makers from the military and intelligence who master studying maps, drawing plans, defining tactics and controls, and expanding and narrowing margins.

The Americans as well as the serious players on the geographical area that witnesses related wars from Russia in the north to the Gulf in the south and from Iran in the east to the Mediterranean in the west, and which includes major players as Iran, Russia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Israel deal with this area as a modification of the concept of the traditional region which is known by the Middle East. Everyone knows without public recognition that the area of the five seas which the Syrian President talked about as a vital range of policies and strategies ten years ago is the new regional framework of the new world, and an alternative to what was known with the heart of the old world, it includes the Arab East and the northern of Africa as a description of the meaning of the Middle East which locates in the center of the major regional countries as Turkey, Iran, and the Gulf. The Americans tried to modify it by naming it the Great Middle East adding these countries to it, but they were surprised by the Russian involvement in the conflict and its turning into a regional player in it.

On the analysts and planners’ maps, the vital ranges of the five seas seem like that, In the Caspian Sea, the conflict has been resolved in favor of the major players in it; Russia and Iran, while the countries which locate along the sea are under Russian –Iranian cover such as Kazakhstan which  is hosting in its capital Astana the solution dialogues for Syria led by Russia, and Azerbaijan whose its president participated few days ago in a trilateral summit with the Russian and the Iranian Presidents in Tehran to announce a strategic cooperation network with Russia and Iran. In the Black Sea where the traditional conflict is between the two poles of the sea; Russia and Turkey and on its usage, the Syrian war has formed an arena for the maturity of Turkey and its reading of its interests, alliances, and its national security in a way that made it a part of the Russian-Iranian system at the regional level, despite its presence internationally in the NATO. In the Mediterranean Sea there is no place for small wars since it is the international lake in which the major players are present face-to-face. In the Gulf, where the American presence is face-to face with the Iranian one the adventure is not allowed. So the Red Sea is the only available battlefield under the controls of avoiding the Great War, and the seeking to modify the balances simultaneously.

China is on the Red Sea in Djibouti, while Iran is on the Red Sea in Eritrea as the Americans, the Saudis, and the Israelis said. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Israel is on the Red Sea directly, but Yemen and Egypt alone have control on the sides of the Red Sea, so resolving the US domination on the two sides of the Red Sea the northern and the southern is achieved by imposing the Saudi presence in the north on the coast of Yemen, because it prevents turning the Egyptian presence in the south into a neutral settling role, while the staying of the Yemeni coast under the control of the Yemenis especially the port of Hodeidah keeps the Egyptian role Egyptian and prevents its involvement in the international and the regional equations and the considerations of its balances, especially because the battle of Bab Al-Mandab is not resolved but by having control on Hodeidah.

Therefore, the war is the war of Hodeidah. In Lebanon the equation is to link the acceptance of the Saudi cover of a settlement that recognizes the victories of Hezbollah in Syria in exchange of the acceptance of Iran of a settlement in Yemen that recognizes the victories of Saudi Arabia after resolving Hodeidah, where the resignation of the Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Al-Hariri becomes under a Saudi decision a deterrent preemptive to protect the project of the virtual settlement after the war of Hodeidah. While in the field there is a Saudi preemptive escalation against Iran as a virtual deterrence for any Iranian involvement in the war of Hodeidah. The beginning is the announcement of the closure of the Yemeni territorial water and linking the missiles that target Saudi Arabia from Yemen with an Iranian role and making the port of Hodeidah a title for this linkage.

The war of Yemen is the well-considered limited war to prevent a major war which the American and the Israeli know that they do not have the ability to get involved in, because if Saudi Arabia controls on it,  then it will be a gain for the whole alliance, and if it does not control on it, Saudi Arabia will bear the consequences of the of the defeat alone since it received a lot of money in advance as a compensation for the cover of its campaign against its neighbors and seizing their wealth.

The Yemenis say that they do not need Iranian intervention to protect their capabilities in Hodeidah, since their missiles to the Saudi depth in case of the outbreak of war will deter the Saudis from continuing their tampering with fire.

Everyone says that by the end of this year the wars will end, and settlements will start, so Syria goes to war of recapturing Raqqa and Idlib, supported by Iran and Russia, even if it collided with the Americans and the Turks, while America and Israel sent Saudi Arabia to occupy Hodeidah provided that not to collide with Iran.

After drawing and resolving the balances of the Red Sea, the equation of the Gulf becomes clear, and the Mediterranean Sea will host the summits of the major settlements in the area of the five seas.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,