Putin’s decision clarifies its backgrounds between the choices of peace and war

Written by Nasser Kandil,

The analysts differ about who has benefited from the decision of the Russian President Vladimir Putin after the announcement of  withdrawing the main part of his troops from Syria on the eve of the starting the negotiations about the political solution in Geneva, between those who supposed that the goal is to leave the Syrian country in a state of concern in the negotiations to accept concessions which it did not accept them before the decision ,thus it feels of the magnitude of the support offered by the Russian presence, as it is a message to others that Moscow will not cover what will the official Syrian delegation adopt in the negotiations, and it will not bear its consequences, while an opposite party sees that the Russian decision has put  the Syrian country in a comfortable state in Geneva after its military situation has been improved and has benefited from  it in its negotiating position, and after the resolution of the Security Council has drawn a comfortable ceiling for it to negotiate in Geneva as a country that is responsible of its positions, in order to make Russia occupy the position of the judge and the mediator by announcing  the withdrawal by its president . Russia tells the others that the first phase of the war which paves the way for the political solution has been accomplished by the closure of the Turkish borders, and the resolving of the classification of Al- Nusra Front on the list of terrorism, it is the horse on which the West and its allies have betted to violate the political solution, as it has put the opposition groups between two choices to join Al-Nusra or to enter into the political solution under the UN resolution that calls for forming a unified Syrian government, while its leaves the presidency to the ballot boxes.

Those who differ on determining which is the meant party by the decision of the Russian President agree on that the phase through which the war on Syria and its crisis and repercussions are revolving is an articulated phase, which will end either with the success of the endeavors of the political solution or with their failure, this means the repercussions of the decision of the President Putin on the two assumptions of the success of the political solution or its failure will reveal the targeted party of that decision, in the case of the success of the political solution, this means the acceptance of the Syrian country of a unified government with the opposition that is responsible for preparing a new constitution that is followed by parliamentary and presidential elections under UN sponsorship as the resolution 2254 stated, in other words Al-Nusra Front which forms the pivotal force among the formations that are against the Syrian country will be excluded from the forces that are elected to participate in the government and elections, but this choice is disabled by the stubbornness of the delegation which monopolizes the representation of the opposition with Saudi Turkish and European support and with American silence, so this delegation refuses the joining of other opposition formations to the negotiation especially the Kurds, as well as it refuses the formula of the united government with the remaining of the Syrian President, but it demands the return to the transitional ruling body without the Syrian President, and this is what the Russian troops have come to change it and have succeeded in issuing what translated this change through a resolution by the International Security Council, after their success in holding Vienna Meeting under this title, the fate of the Syrian presidency is a matter that belongs to the Syrians themselves, it will be discussed in accordance with them or it will be resolved by the elections.

The influence of the Russian President on the hypothesis of the political solution is represented by linking the continuation of the war on ISIS and Al-Nusra with the beginning of the political solution and preventing the western and the regional illusions which think and suppose that Russia has come and will stay and will suffer if it will not achieve accomplishments, thus it is obliged to continue the war on ISIS and Al-Nusra and to bear the cost on behalf of the Western and regional world, despite the standstill of the  political solution in Syria, or it will be obliged to exert pressure on its ally the Syrian President to give up of what the UN resolution has granted him, or to accept what ensures the computability with the opposition delegation of Riyadh within conditions to ensure having a coverage for a unified Syrian government that is supported and admitted by the international community, and accepted by the regional forces.

Thus was the Russian decision to tell all that do not dream we will not wage the war on terrorism alone, just for that we ended the necessary phase of war to obtain a united Syrian government that participates with the regional and international forces in the war on terrorism according to the resolution of the International Security Council, then Russia will be a partner as others in this responsibility besides the Syrian government that is recognized by the world and shared its responsibilities, and because Moscow’s decision ensures the withdrawal of Russia from the next war, which means against ISIS and Al-Nusra, and stops the countdown of the military presence in Syria, so it is liberated from the pressures that inform it that the guarantee for forming this government is to make Moscow exert pressure on Damascus to accept what is less than the UN resolution,  moreover to accept a government that has the powers of the president who has to accept the stay formally, thus giving Riyadh and Ankara a victory that is not accomplished in the field, because Russia is in trouble, therefore the Russian President tells all that I am not in a trouble and you have to choose between a solution as the UN resolution or there is no solution, then Moscow will not be obliged to bear the consequences of the failure, let bear them who refuses to apply the UN resolution, he is not the Syrian President the ally of Russia but those who are supported by the West and its allies.

What is essential in the decision of the Russian President is in the hypothesis of the collapse of the negotiations due to the dalliance through which the West is dealing with Saudi Arabia and its group, the decision says that the assumption of the collapse of the negotiations became serious and the return to confrontation became possible, Russia is not a party in it since it withdrew, and those who obstruct the success of the negotiations have to put this assumption into consideration after the Syrian army and its allies have become in a position that enables them to continue the military victories on one hand without saying that the war is revolving with Russia face–to–face. On the other hand, the Russian President left at the hands of the Syrian President a network of air defense which is the most advanced network in the world, in order to say to those who think of an intervention of Turkish, Israeli, or Saudi air troops that the Syrian army has its free control and has qualitative missiles that are not restricted with the Russian presence which is concerned in making consideration of the position of the superpower and its status, thus as the collapse of the negotiation became possible, and the return to confrontation became possible so the Syrian superiority has become guaranteed whether in confronting the armed groups accompanied with ISIS and Al-Nusra, or in the situation of imposing regional interventions by air.

The Russian decision says that those who want to avoid the confrontation with the Syrian army which today has become superior and equipped with the latest Russian arsenal ,and which became free from the burden of the military and moral Russian responsibility for any confrontation, have to prevent the collapse of the negotiations by exerting pressure on Riyadh’s group to accept two things, first to respect the multi form of the negotiating delegation as stated in the UN resolution, and the abandonment of the exclusive representation under the threat of withdrawal. Second, to accept that the Syrian presidency is not an international issue but a Syrian one, and as long as the negotiation did not lead to a solution, so leaving it for the elections is the choice determined by the UN resolution, so the available solution is to accept the participation in a government under the presidency and its powers till the time of the elections. The Russian decision tells the regional and the international players who assumed that Geneva is a theatre for blackmailing Russia and Syria together, you have to wait for a unified Syrian government under the presidency of the Syrian President, and the ensuring of the international and regional recognition, to cooperate with it and to lift the sanctions on Syria, in order to be able to discuss with Russia the next step of war under the UN dome, otherwise let the negotiations fail, Syria will not give up, and Russia will not be embarrassed with failure, because the destination of ISIS will not be Russia but Europe, we will not protect you while you conspire against us, so let the fighters go back to their weapons, the decisive word will be in the field which became ready to show what relieves Syria and Russia, so do not try us.

Moscow and Damascus are in a position of a winner with a winner, while their opponents on all the fronts are in a position of a loser with a loser

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,