Salman, Sisi, Erdogan,…… and Netanyahu The essence of the new American system of the region

Written by Nasser Kandil,

It seems that the scene is fabricated, programmed, and deliberate to the extent that the observer feels that there is someone in a closed secret black room has pressed one of the historic buttons to launch a series of the major transformations, what is happening a few days ago with the announcement of Yemen’s armistice earlier this week suggested of such a thing. Today the Saudi King Salman Bin Abdul Aziz has visited Cairo to witness there on the next day the starting of the application of the truce’s provisions, and the starting of the very serious preparations for Kuwait path of the political Yemeni settlement. After accomplishing the financial understandings which Egypt wanted more than anything else, the Egyptian President had signed the instrument of the waiver of the Egyptian sovereignty over the islands of Tiran and Sanafir, thus the Saudi King announced the land bridge which connects Saudi Arabia and Egypt and has left to Turkey to the bilateral Summit with the President Recep Erdogan to welcome together the Islamic Summit which is supposed to be attended by the Egyptian President, therefore it is a Saudi Turkish Egypt tripartite.

The simultaneous timing of Yemen’s truce with the islands’ agreement and the Islamic Summit explains the riddle of how to employ the Egyptian financial congestion in qualitative steps that are related to what is beyond the big meaning of Washington’s accompaniment of the settlement’s stage, by gathering the tripartite which belongs to it in order to form a balance against Iran, the common opponent in drawing the new map of the Middle East, after the success in taming the Egyptian privacy which ends with blocking Al Manar TV from Nilesat the Egyptian satellite before the visit of the King Salman, and which its end has been culminated with the agreement of the islands, it will be announced at the celebration of the Egyptian Saudi Turkish tripartite Summit. Regarding the issue of the islands the understandings are not settled without the Israeli approval not only because Israel is a definitive partner in any Egyptian decision that affects the sovereignty over the islands according the Camp David Accords,  and it is impossible to complete the understanding on the two islands without its approval,  but because Israel will not give its approval but only for a higher interest, and because Israel is the owner of the project which acquired the Egyptian and the Saudi signatures and the US decision.

With the verification of the seriousness of the track of settlements the permanent question was where is Israel? How will it accustomed to the settlements? And how can Washington participate in accomplishing the settlements which recover Syria, its army, its constants, and its President even from the position of the inability to change? But only if it assured that Israel will not pay from its presence and its future the cost of these settlements. Washington knows fully that the emerging balance of the powers by these settlements will make the authority of the resistance alliance the highest, while the open and the suspended conflict about Palestine will be the sparkle which will ignite a war one day and Israel will pay its cost high.

Since the visit of Netanyahu to Washington and the announcement of a strategic understanding which its outcomes emerged through launching a legal media and diplomatic war against Hezbollah and the immediate join of Saudi Arabia in leading it, it seemed that this was just the peak of an iceberg, and it seemed that the sequent American decisions of increasing the military aids to Israel were not related to ensure the superiority in the next war, because these weapons will  not be useful as long as they do not protect it from the missiles war which will lead to its defeat, but perhaps they were payments at the expense of peace’s guarantees which is supposed that Israel will engage in it along with a Palestinian partner that is ready under a Saudi sponsorship to sign a deal that allows of normalizing the Saudi-Israeli relations, thus its economic revenue will be in favor of Israel as a suitable compensation of its losses in the settlements, and a guarantee of a greater role than an economic one by making it a partner in the global oil market as well as the transit line between the Gulf and Europe, it is the strategic alternative crossing for the passage of the ships to Saudi Arabia from the Strait of Hormuz under the Iranian sight and will. All of these are the consequences of the agreement of transferring the islands to Saudi Arabia and the starting of a land bridge up to Haifa that  holds the oil pipelines, thus it will be the bridge of Salman as the Egyptian President said,. The symbolism of the coming bridge is beyond linking Egypt with Saudi Arabia through a land route, it grants Israel the role of the gateway to the West from the Middle East, and forming a regional economic security quartet system that is related to the west that includes Israel Turkey Saudi Arabia and Egypt against Iran.

Certainly the matter was not by coincidence, today Haaretz newspaper talks about what Al Binaa wrote yesterday about the issue of the islands and its repercussions on the economies of oil and transit according to Israel, tomorrow maybe it will talk about what Al Binaa has written  today about an Israeli recognition of the barter between a strategic economic role which was the dream of its former President Shimon Peres and its military role which suffered of the inability of restoring, this recognition means in addition to an Israeli acceptance of a solution that based on forming a Palestinian state in the Saudi and Egyptian patronage that includes during twenty years composite solutions for the issues of borders, Jerusalem, and refugees, an acceptance of the withdrawal of Golan and Shebaa Farms. This ends the issue of the regional war, and opens the door for different stage including its ruling bases and its agitating slogans in the content of politics in Iran, Syria, and Lebanon, where the conflict with Israel will no more be the present central issue unless a rhythm of Palestinian resistance and endless uprising in the occupied territories since 1948 are imposed.

On the basis of this context it can be understood the magnitude of the Russian rush towards the military positioning in Syria, as well as  the severity in the decisiveness and clarity about the dignity of Syria and its position in the political geography in the next phase, on this basis as well it can be understood the understanding of the mysterious fate of the Kurds and the project of their own state as well as the understanding of the Turkish seek to get a security privacy in the area of the Syrian Jarablos and the area of the Iraqi Mosul, these are new maps that are approaching with the approach of the anniversary of centenary of Sykes Picot’s understandings among which was the preparation for the emergence of Israel.

With the Arabs’ abandonment of the Palestinian Cause, the determinant factor of the future of the new maps through which the Syrians, Lebanese, Iraqis and the Yemenis have resolved the fate of their country is how will the two main parties behave in the existential struggle on the land of Palestine; their original inhibitors and the settlers, and how will each one of them undertake their different considerations as it always happens by disabling the Arab-Israeli normalization?

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,