Between joining Golan and the Turkish Saudi escalation

Written by Nasser Kandil,

At the critical historic moments when the final maps of the balances of force and the paths negotiation are drawn and within the last quarter of the war, where the super powers with all their importance and presence stand, and where there is no place for coincides especially through the messages which resulted  from the concurrence of the qualitative events which occurred by full initiative of its owners, any observer can notice that he does not take into considerations two simultaneous threats, with initiatives without introductions, the announcement of the Israeli government of the final joining of Golan to the occupied territories on which the entity is settled, and the dual announcement of opposition of Riyadh group of its intention to withdraw from Geneva talks due to the failure of progress of the talks on one hand, and the intension of its armed factions to withdraw from the truce’s provisions due to the response of what it called the violations through which it accuses the Syrian army of their  committing on the other hand.

In the detailed reading of the special contexts of each announcement, it does not seem that the interpretation of each one of them available, nothing new in Golan that can be linked with the magnitude of the Israeli decision and its escalated political meaning, nothing is surprising in the disputes in Geneva talks, moreover the Syrian official delegation does not refuse to discuss about the fate of presidency or the transitional govern body, as well as nothing new or surprising in the field which has erupted in the rural areas of Aleppo by Al Nusra Front through an official statement after liberating Palmyra by the Syrian army, and the fall of Al Nusra’s bets on the ability of ISIS to wage a long attrition war against the Syrian Army that postpones the bottles of Idlib, and ensures the protection for Al Nusra in the countryside of Aleppo as long as it raises flags of so- called the Free Army and shares roles with Riyadh group that benefit the two parties. This shows that the opposition has a military importance that includes it to the provisions of the truce; as well it grants Al Nusra the protection of its sites from the war. With the development of the consequences of Palmyra bottle, it is normal for Al Nusra to resort to blow up the situation in the countryside of Aleppo, and the response as the Russians said through the provisions of the truce as long as Al Nusra is outside the provisions of the truce. Therefore the group of Riyadh cannot claim that there is something politically important unexpected has happened that requires to take an important decision as the withdrawal from Geneva, or something unexpected of military importance has occurred that justifies getting out of the truce’s provisions, moreover Israel cannot claim that something has happened that justifies its resorting to an escalated decision as the final joining of Golan and threatening of war to protect this decision, so can all these introductions together give the explanation?

When we search on Google engine for words such as “Israel, Golan, the opposition, Syria, Aleppo, Geneva, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia” we will discover that the name of Al Nusra Front will be an automatic result for the search, it is the common collective between Israel’s plans regarding Golan and the plans of Turkey and Saudi Arabia in Syria and the structure of the opposition in the northern of Syria. The original Israeli plan in Golan based on the attempt to set a security belt that is handled by Al Nusra Front which Israel announced it repeatedly in an official way, while the plan of Saudi Arabia and Turkey in Syria was always through integrating Al Nusra Front with the Syrian political process and joining it to Geneva and to any armistice but excluding it from the terrorism’s lists. It is known as well that the fragile opposition body militarily is based on the optical illusion and a functional sharing for three years ago between this opposition as a political media front and Al Nusra front as a military force. Al Nusra fights but it does not mind to raise the opposition’s flags where the victories are embarrassing its Israeli Turkish and Saudi allies because they embarrass the West, since Al Nusra was and still the official branch of Al Qaeda Organization in Syria, when Al Nusra wants to hide in order to make use of the truce it raises the opposition flags, thus the opposition gains a size that does not belong to it, and Al Nusra gains a coverage that does not have, so it can be said that Al Nusra is the password of the Israeli Turkish Saudi partnership and the role  of the opposition is as a political front for this partnership.

After the victories of the Syrian army in Palmyra it seemed clear from the quality and the rapidness of the victory that what is going to be in the field will be similar in quality and speed, as it was clear that the subsequent front which the war on terrorism will target will be Al Nusra Front and that Idlib will be the next front within the concept of the truce’s provisions which Al Nusra and ISIS were excluded of them, thus the preemptive war of Al Nusra will be the sparkle of the beginning in the countryside of Aleppo. It is clear as well that what the bottles of the countryside of Aleppo make, is postponing the bottle of Idlib for days and weeks but does not change neither the course of war nor its consequence, but it was clear that the calendar of Geneva will change in favor of the logic of the Syrian country and the call for forming a unified government in the light of the Syrian presidency in accordance with the provisions of the UN resolution 2254, while the field will be decisive in the coming bottles in favor of the Syrian army. Thus it will appear as an only inevitable partner in any serious project in the war on terrorism, however the opposition will become uncovered faint without existence body, Turkey and Saudi Arabia will finally come out of the Syrian geography, and the fate of the presence of Al Nusra on the borders of Golan and what is left in the southern of Syria will be just a matter of time in order to make Israel bare of any cover and without current bets.

The title of the simultaneous escalation is Al Nusra Front and the preemptive war which is waged by the Israeli-Turkish-Saudi alliance to protect it as a horse of the common bet, or the imposition of the modifications on the negotiation rules, its conditions and its partners by modifying the form of Geneva that ensures the search for alternative guarantees for the phase after Al Nusra for the parties which invested on its role, it means costs and guarantees for each of Israel, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia for the future of their roles, interests, and security before everything they made collapse in Syria. The message here is that the cost of terminating Al Nusra is greater than seats in a unified Syrian government that includes a representatives of the opposition, maybe Geneva includes regional and international parties that are concerned in the consequences of the war in Syria to balance the accounts of the interests and guarantees, after it was stable according to the implicit repetitive permanent Russian answer that the Syrian country has recovered and it restores its strength day by day, and that it returns to be an important player in the region.

 it seems that a necessary round that has a kind of Israeli partnership that appears more apparently now after the decision of joining is coming, supporting Al Nusra Front and the northern fronts with more pronounced Turkish presence, while Saudi Arabia provides funding and the coverage for the opposition by the political escalation and the different bottles for the militias of Wahhabi as the Army of Islam, through which the final image of the balances of the last quarter will be settle.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,