The Israeli harassment in Golan in place and time: Three settlements are being prepared, and three strategic shifts

Written by Nasser Kandil,

What the government of the occupation has undertaken of more than taking a position or issuing an escalating arousing statement about Golan to the extent of reaching to the highest degrees of the media preparation for the issue of Golan through holding a meeting for the government in the occupied Syrian territories, and the issuance of a statement that announces the final joining of Golan and considering it a historic part that is not a subject for waiver as the lands on which the entity of the occupation settles  is a strategic shift on the chessboard which is represented by the Middle East during the historic moment, where the shifts which represent the importance of the countries and the major involved entities in the strategic playing on this board meet.

It is clear for the observer that Turkey is waiting after the loss of the compass with the failure of the secure area’s project  which constituted the center of its strategies for having control over the sensitive and influential geography in the region’s maps, as Egypt which is wondering between the role of the median force that is capable to fill the gap between two regional parties that its conditions allow the entry in the mediations which they need, especially from the Syrian gate which has a special attitude towards it, and in particular the cooperation with Russia which has a special relationship with it, but because the opposite bank means Saudi Arabia, which became clear that it is the Egyptian weak point  which confuses Cairo, so it meets what Riyadh wants, it positions behind it with the minimum limit of obligations waiting for more flexibility with the launching of  train settlements after moving from the wagon of leadership to the passengers ‘ wagon even if they were dedicated for the first –class passengers and the VIPs.

Saudi Arabia meets the Israeli visions by considering the next battle with Hezbollah, and in the attempt to form a regional regime that is capable of besieging Iran with alliances which include Turkey, Egypt and Pakistan, and which the Islamic Summit in Istanbul was the first copy of its weakness, so Saudi Arabia tries to reduce the burdens of the war of Yemen, it admits of the future role of Al Houthis in a common ruling formula by an Israeli advice, they are moving towards a comprehensive wide normalization from the gate of the strategic shift that does not make an impact as the shift of Golan, but it has more stable dimensions, it is the content of the project of the land bridge between Saudi Arabia and Sinai and its expansion to Haifa with the oil pipelines, and tracks for the railways of the fast train for passengers and goods, the shift on the chessboard here ends one function of the functions of the Strait of Hormuz where it is controlled by a party that controls Iran as well with the world oil trade, however the port of Haifa will become through this shift the biggest international port for the oil sales in the world, and resizes the role of the Strait of Bab Al Mandab in anticipation for the consequences of the Yemeni settlement ,and the attempt to compensate Egypt financially for the losses of Suez Canal from the effects of turning Haifa into a Saudi marine port for oil and the transit trade.

The shift of Israel in Golan considers a completion of the most important shift in the two islands Tiran and Sanafir which Egypt has given to Saudi Arabia with an Israeli blessing within that project, which constitutes an Israeli dream to compensate the loses which affected it in the regional issues. Because the implications of this line are to ensure the security then it is normal to be culminated with a peace plan that prevents the exposing of Israel to the threat of coming war, this requires an understanding under an American sponsorship that includes Egypt, and Turkey with Saudi Arabia and Israel to bring the Palestinian Authority and Hamas together into a negotiation that ends with the Palestinian country in Gaza and uneven proportions of the self-government in the West Bank’s areas, in addition to a long –term negotiation on the borders, Jerusalem, and the refuges, under the banner of a Palestinian State according to the Arab initiative for peace but with suspension. b Within this context alone the strategic line can emerge to light, and in order to serve this big transformation the peace cannot prevent the war if it does not include a settlement for Golan and Shebaa Farms, this explains the Israeli opening of Golan file to this extent, thus Israel can reserve a seat at the negotiating tables where the head of the occupation government Benjamin Netanyahu started it with a visit to Moscow the first target of the repetitive Israeli announcement for joining Golan, because he has preparations such as the decision of disengagement of 1974 and the acceptance of the Russian mediation for negotiation between Syria and Israel about Golan.

The third shift which constitutes a geostrategic change in the regional and international map is which its preparatory studies have been accomplished by Russia and Iran and became ready to be implemented, their subject is the incision of a canal that links the Caspian Sea with the Gulf of thousand kilometers length, through which Russia will have a control over the warm waters of the Gulf and becomes the complement oil supplier of Iran for the needs of India and China across Hormuz with ten million barrels that compensate the Saudi oil which is being transformed to Europe across Haifa, thus the Gulf practically becomes an Iranian Russian lake after its strategic importance  has been degraded by Washington which is aspiring for the passage of the Saudi oil which its track will turn toward Haifa, while Iran will accomplish the largest oil and gas pipelines in Asia toward China passing by Pakistan, and India and toward the Mediterranean Sea passing by Iraq and Syria, while the passage of the Russian oil and gas through the pipelines of Caspian –Gulf will be an adequate condition to transform them through Iran’s pipelines to China and the Mediterranean in necessity. Thus the strategic value of the canal and the lines network is the emergence of new Asia that surpasses the need for Turkey and Saudi Arabia in the geography of oil, gas, and the pipeline networks.

The Israeli harassment suggests of a high ceiling about Golan with the intensions of going to war, but by checking the balances especially the new deterrence equation which the Secretary-General of Hezbollah Al Sayyed Hassan Nasrollah launched about the Israeli self – destruction by its stock of fuels, gases, and the chemical, biological, and the nuclear plants in any coming war turns the scale of employing the harassment for the negotiation on the current situation, by seeking to revive the disengagement which was existed since 1974, it means before Israel embraced Al Nusra Front and settled its project for the security belt in Golan, the demand is that the revival must include any UN resolution that devotes the Syrian settlement, and an approaching situation its title is the preparation for negotiations that resolve the final condition of Golan in conjunction with the maturity of Palestinian-Israeli settlement that targets the termination of the Palestinian Cause with a Saudi Turkish sponsorship and a formal Egyptian partnership.

 The alliance of the resistance cannot deal with the Israeli escalation about Golan because it is a media escalation; therefore Syria announced that the resistance is a rising option, so the successive messages will be rising through the confrontation on Golan Front to draw the balances of force which will control any negotiating track. The resistance is involved as Syria in the threat of drawing a red line against it where Israel tried to impose on the day of the assassination of the martyr Jihad Mognieh and his friends, but the deterrence in Shebaa Farms was enough to fall it, Iran is involved as Syria because the target in overthrowing the Palestinian Cause as a title is the Palestinian people, but in the current balances Iran is targeted to encircle its regional role which derives its legitimacy from raising the flag of Palestine which others have fallen it and raised the flag of Israel instead.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,