Lebanon was a testing-ground of the region and it will remain

Written by Nasser Kandil

The Lebanese people deal with politics, its crises, and its entitlements  and they look toward what is going around them hopefully, they wait the visits of the international presidential and ministerial delegations expecting that they will hear a password which they used to hear with every entitlement but everything is delayed, while the neighborhood seems to be governed by rules and conflict laws where there is no place for an active but for the only Lebanese force which is Hezbollah which succeeded in a brave initiative to turn into an additive value in an international and regional alliance,  it seems that it moves confidentially towards achieving half of a victory if the full victory is not available, half of victory  internationally and full victory regionally despite what they affect Hezbollah in the last quarter of small different bottles and big comprehensive coordinated wars that all assembled form an admission of its status and its dealing with them from its new position as an active regional player outside the Lebanese details, thus it becomes a partner of it in addition to its normal partnership as a Lebanese party.

Two years of the Lebanese  presidential vacancy have passed on fully considered rhythm by an international and regional encouragement to manage the vacancy instead of the attempt to fill it, since promoting to extend for the parliament and forming a new government, in anticipation of reaching the presidential vacancy before one year of its occurrence regarding  the extension for the mandate of the parliament, and before six months of having the current government, each of the two matters required what was more than an international and regional coping under the slogan of preserving the stability, therefore there were consultations, consensus and abandonment of preconditions such as no government with Hezbollah while it is fighting in Syria, but that was overcome, because the vacancy is inevitable, so what is the required is an extended parliament waiting and government of caretaker which is waiting too.

The waiting for many Lebanese players seem to be a lost time they fill it till the deadline of their entitlements , while according to the outside it seems a testing-ground for crises and solutions of the region. In Lebanon the world is testing four choices and issues, the region will not move towards the settlements without their development and resolving. First of all, the force balance which surrounds Israel under the exhausting involvement of Hezbollah in the war of Syria and some of the other bottles with different proportions. Second, the opportunity of the success of the Lebanese sectarian regime in presenting an example of managing the crises that allow forming regimes on its basis during the ravage which affects the region, this is the speech of the UN envoy to Syria Steffan De Mistura about the example of the inspiring Lebanon. Third the status of the Christians in the East and their ability to keep their presence is a paramount issue that cannot be ignored.

Within this Lebanese presence and its importance under the Christian title of the role and the status a lot of things which are  related to the concept of the civil country and the religious sectarian diversities which are coexisting in civil peace will be determined, either the federalism, or the semi religious country as the Turkish style. In Lebanon and from Lebanon the importance and the role of the regional sectarian leaderships will be determined, after the leaders of Lebanese sects had a status for leading their sects outside Lebanon and over the region over the past three decades, since the leadership of the each one of the Prime Minister Rafik Al Hariri and the Deputy Walid Jumblatt of their sects in the region, in return of the leadership which the Christians of Lebanon occupy historically among the sons of their sect in the region. The fourth test is for the settlement projects either for the Syrians or for the Palestinians as a choice that ensures a high level of influence on the Syrian issue and later on the Palestinian issue across Lebanon at the international and regional level, this allows a high security for the West from the threats of manipulating in the components of fragile communities in Europe especially toward their racist environment on one hand, and their uncertain security on the other hand.

It seems that Lebanon the testing-ground has completed its task or nearly, the visits continue to observe the situation and to know the ability of continuity and endurance, it appears that the sectarian regime at the last gasp , its weakness is shown in the inability to get the solutions, while the Christian situation is present and capable, it seems as well that the Lebanese leaderships of sects and communities in the region are moving toward decline, the security of Israel seems to be in its worst conditions , thus the settlement does not seem to be a receipt that is available to be promoted, and the Lebanese solution does not seem available before the open war against Hezbollah leads to a settlement that specifies its obligations in the war on terrorism in exchange of its status in creating the Lebanese coverage to reform the regime.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,