The Russians hit the target once again

Written by Nasser Kandil,

The last escalation which the Northern of Syria has witnessed with the withdrawal of the delegation of the group of Riyadh from Geneva talks is inserted by observers in the domain of accomplishment that enabled the Saudi Turkish bilateral from achieving it due to its maneuvers against the truce agreement. Those say that the Syrian country has been obliged taking into consideration  the diplomatic needs of its Russian ally and its appearance as a mediator to accept the truce which will enable the armed groups especially in the Northern of Syria to lean on what is provided by the Turkish depth through the increase of its equipment, men, ammunitions, setting the fortifications, inserting new qualitative weapons, and making use of the timing of the battle to overthrow what the Syrian army and its allies have achieved during months that are full of sacrifices.

The facts showed that the party which benefited from the truce in achieving complete revocable accomplishment that is not subject to interpretation was the Syrian army and its allies as the battles of Palmyra showed, and that this accomplishment was qualitative exceptional and had major effects on  each path of the war in Syria specially, regarding the vital security in linking the Syrian provices to each other, because Palmyra’s issue constituted a sensitive  point because it was under the control of ISIS, thus the threat was direct against the security of Homs and the international road between Homs and Damascus and between Damascus and the coast toward the desert which is related to the countryside of Hama in the North of Homs thus was the control of ISIS  on the road of Hama Aleppo toward Khanaser as it did repeatedly, therefore the victory of Palmyra except for directing a fatal blow against the project which has lost its value with the loss of Palmyra it granted the Syrian army a site that does not allow any negotiation  in its eligibility as an inevitable partner in the war on terrorism, in contrast of the failure which all the alternatives gained, and which were invested  by the Americans politically and financially in vain, this was unable to be happened, except for the truce which allowed the concentration of important vital military capacities to achieve this victory, these capacities were occupied and distributed on other fronts, the war of Palmyra was a direct translation of the truce provisions as the US Secretary of State John Kerry was obliged to confess since ISIS is excluded of the truce’s provisions.

The second episode of the truce was the readiness for a war that targets Al Nusra Front within the provisions of the armistice, it is not a secret that every conflict in Syria revolves around Al Nusra Front, and that the armistice is a Russian innovation to isolate Al Nusra away from the components of the opposition, which have to choose between joining Al Nusra and losing their negotiating seat and their political position as an opposition, or to accept the equation of the armistice and to try to deprive it of its contents as they tried to do, accompanied with their regional sponsors especially the Turkish, Saudi, and the Israeli. If the identity of the northern front of Syria which is known as an area that is under the dominance of Al Nusra Front has been accepted within the truce by just the claims of the opposition groups that it belongs to them, then this was because the requirements of the battle of Palmyra benefited from the coverage of the truce over broader possible areas and the from the ceasing fire there. As the bet of Al Nusra was on this acceptance, to implicate the Syrian army in an attrition war in Palmyra with ISIS that lasts for months, the bet of the Syrian army was on its ability and its readiness for the quick resolving, so as an outcome, the army has imposed its will, while Al Nusra was obliged to lift the mask of the group of Riyadh and to get out of the truce in anticipation of what is waiting for it.

It is logical that Al Nusra front and all the other factions as the Army of Islam and Ahrar Al Sham have benefited from the truce in ammunition, weapons, and men, and as it cannot be denied that Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Israel have done their best to provide the best conditions for this battle especially at the political level by waging the highest media mobilization process to show what is happening there is a violation of the truce’s provisions by the Syrian army. it is certain that the Russian Syrian coordination with the allies depend on the equation that controls every acceptance with the political process. This equation depends on linking the achievement of every military accomplishment with getting the international legitimacy for the coming accomplishment. Therefore the battles after the Russian positioning were aiming for the preparation for the truce including resolving the classifying of Al Nusra and ISIS as two terrorist organizations after years of disagreement with the other campaign on the position of Al Nusra in the war with ISIS  and in the political process. Before the issuance of the UN resolution 2254 which prevents the international promotion of the fate of the Syrian presidency as a kind of solution and making it a matter that belongs to the Syrians themselves either they resolve it by negotiation or by resorting to the ballot boxes, the equation was a continuation of the field military achievements till the Americans accept what was issued in the resolution. After the resolution the issue became about the continuation of the fight till issuing an American Russian agreement for the truce  that ensures the classification of Al Nusra as terrorism, this agreement has been issued, after the truce the fight was to extract Palmyra of ISIS’s grip under an international coverage, the mission has succeeded and the world applauded. After Palmyra, the conflict is concentrating on the preparation for a war against Al Nusra after getting the international admission especially American one according to the truce’s provisions that the war of the northern of Syria is a war with Al Nusra and not a violation of the truce but applying to its provisions, while the importance of Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Israel is by the withdrawal of the negotiating delegation,  the media escalation, and the joining of Golan in order to say that the country is violating the truce and thus obliging it to stop the war against Al Nusra, so its opponents will win and celebrate according to the importance of Al Nusra in their considerations, Israel by the belt of Golan, Turkey by its secure area, while Saudi Arabia by the seriousness of bombing the paths of the Syrian settlement.

The accurate consideration of every matter which the Russians show in managing the episodes of the war and the diplomacy in Syria has led to the wining of its bets, but the question was about the most difficult episode which would lead to the most important result, when the Americans by the UN Envoy Steffan De Mistura called the countries for the meeting of Vienna Path under the slogan of saving the truce and the political path of the threat of collapse, Moscow responded that there is no need as it did before months of New York Meeting which it re-attended it after modifying the American position and the acceptance of what was issued later in the UN resolution, the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said explaining the position of its government that the issue depends on the exit of the opposition groups of the areas that are under the dominance of Al Nusra, everyone was waiting for the American position, because Washington is the parallel player to Moscow, moreover it is its partner in setting the truce provisions. The winner of the third episode of the truce is the party which will win the position of Washington, so is the war in Aleppo within the truce provisions or a violation of them?

Russia and Syria won the round of Palmyra from the truce as the round of the withdrawal of the negotiating delegation and the bombing of the fronts outside Aleppo. So the group of Riyadh seemed as an element for disrupting the political path and a party of the military escalation, till the American position has been issued clearly yesterday by the spokesman of the international coalition led by Washington for the war on ISIS the Colonel Steve Warren, he said that the war in Aleppo is not a violation of the truce because Al Nusra is having control there and it is not included by the truce’s provisions.

A new qualitative diplomatic victory was achieved by the Russian diplomacy, and a resounding loss for the Turkish Saudi Israeli alliance as well as a scandal to the group of Riyadh.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,