Vienna’s term has ended in Syria

Written by Nasser Kandil,

There is no longer something can be waited in order to revive the path of Geneva and the related truce, because the context which initiated by the Russian American understanding, the proceeding of Vienna Meeting by the American Russian leadership, and the Saudi Turkish dissatisfaction depends on an equation its basis is linking the progress of resolving the group of Riyadh accompanied with the Army of Islam and Ahrar Al Sham through their position toward Al Nusra front politically , and the disengagement with it in the field either by joining the war against it or the withdrawal from the areas under its control. It is clear that the behavior of the group of Riyadh and its two armed factions the Army of Islam and Ahrar Al Sham based on neglecting this equation and sticking to the coordination and the integration with Al-Nusra, and it is clear as well that Al-Nusra has received the message and started the war of resolving against the Army of Islam, but despite that the Army of Islam and the group of Riyadh were trying to launch the initiatives to prevent the continuation of fighting, since it is a crack of the unity,  a fighting between the brothers of weapons, a fulfillment of the conspiracy’s goals that target the alliance between Al Nusra and the group of Riyadh, and a presentation of the concessions and the assurances to Al Nusra to stop its attacks.

The basis of the choice of the group of Riyadh and the two factions of the Army of Islam and Ahrar Al Sham is the insignificance of the field presence comparing with Al Nusra front which proved that it is able to terminate the most important faction which is represented by the Army of Islam in the area of its central dominance in Al Ghouta of Damascus and within hours, so how if it decided that in other areas. The result caused by the sense of military marginality and its awareness means that the proposed options in front of the group of Riyadh and its militias are options ranging between accepting the transition into just a  political banner without field force; they go to negotiation but they do not have but to accept what is proposed, or joining the partnership with Al-Nusra that grants a political coverage on behalf of the opposition and its two allies the Turkish and the Saudi in exchange of exploiting the field interference and engagement to maintain the position of strength that is provided by the expansion of Al Nusra Front, and the magnitude of its capacities, as well as the bet on turning the wars of resolving with Al Nusra, after providing the political coverage and the media mobilization against it into a war against the opposition to get the truce one after another towards a review that allows reviving the negotiation with new conditions.

It is clear from the positions of the field equation, the ignorance of the attempt to search for a response from the group of Riyadh, because Russia announced a new starting for the season of Sukhoi two days later, it has invited Washington to participate in, while the Russians, the Syrians, and Hezbollah are mobilizing their capacities to wage a decisive decided round against Al Nusra Front, while the Americans are behaving on the basis of the transition to another kind of race, it is to mobilize their Kurdish and Syrian allies under the title of the Syrian Democratic Forces to open the front of Raqqa against ISIS, and to test the opportunities of achieving qualitative breakthrough in this front, in exchange of leaving the Turks and the Saudis test their experience of dumping the Russians, Syrians, Iranians, and Hezbollah in a war of attrition against Al Nusra Front and their affiliated groups in the northern of Syria, so if it achieves what it wants in the two fronts then it will turn to Moscow to modify the rules of understanding, but if the opposite was achieved and Washington lost the bet of Raqqa and Russia succeeded in the bet of Al Nusra, then Washington will turn to its allies to impose the understanding and to apply it, but if the results were equiponderant here and there, then there will be a discussion for a settlement of the settlement.

So it is the war and the resolving is for the field.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,