What is beyond the Turkish Israeli understanding: ….. a war project or something else?

Written by Nasser Kandil,

Since the beginning of the war on Syria Turkey and Israel stand in one bank, they are integrated to supply Al-Qaeda with all the reasons of power, their intelligence and their military forces intervene whenever there is an opportunity to strike the Syrian army and the forces of the resistance. The Israeli government and the new Ottoman government led by Benjamin Netanyahu and Recep Erdogan see that the recovery of Syria forms a radical change in the geo-strategic equations of the region which are not in their favor, because it returns to the playing ground a strong ambitious player to play roles that will be at their expense, it will improve the position of the two allies of Syria Russia and Iran to affect the balances, everyone from his different perspective, thus Turkey will be under a dual pressure on borders between Russia and Iran, and a square pressure if Syria and Iraq were added, while Israel will receive the consequences of the Syrian recovery an existential threat through the integration of the parties of the resistance alliance across Syria from Iran to Hezbollah, this threatens the security of Israel and its presence with the threat of any coming confrontation.

The cooperation and the integration between Ankara and Tel Aviv does not stop despite the diplomatic and the political crisis which restricts the public normalization between them, because of the remnant of a crisis what was known as the fleet of Marmara, when the Israeli security has caused the killing of a number of the Turks who went to lift the siege on Gaza strip, so the need to overcome these remnants is a common need, but the policy of the apology which is difficult for Israel is a necessity to Turkey, as it is the matter of dropping the Russian jet by Turkey, the diplomacy of apology is difficult for Turkey and a necessity to Russia, just for that was the delay of the normalization in order to make the revenue of the normalization sufficient to compensate the damages of the apology or covering them, thus the final steps were linked with shifts that require the public transformation to the qualitative or the strategic understanding or the pivotal alliance.

What is going on in Syria seems that it is in front of military qualitative shifts either on the front of Deir Al Zour , or Aleppo’s front and its countryside, but the control of imposing long-term open attrition war in Syria does not seem a matter that is tolerated by Russia which its military intervention has become threatened of failure unless it succeeds in turning it to a clear beginning of a clear comprehensive political solution, or a reason for a prompt rolling military resolving, thus the Russian role will not be subject to the policy of the American deadlines which turned into a war of attrition, this applies also on Iran, Hezbollah, and especially the Syrian state which means setting the rhythm of the war according to the Russian time by the allies is based on the end of an agreed certain deadline, then Russia will turn into resolving with the allies or it will return having the anticipated solution which meets the aspirations with an international consensus on a unified Syrian government under the legitimacy of the Syrian presidency and a military resolving against Al Nusra and ISIS and who support them. Summer is the ceiling of the anticipations; which means that the region will face major shifts that require being ready at the forefront of the involved of that are Turkey and Israel, they know implicitly how to employ the Saudi money and its hatred.

The hypothesis of the military Turkish intervention in the northern of Syria and an Israeli war against Hezbollah in Syria or Lebanon or against both of them, or the hypothesis of the cooperation through limited coordinated strikes in intelligence or militarily from Ankara and Tel Aviv that target Hezbollah in the northern and the southern of Syria with an American consent in order not to come out recovered from the war of Syria are proposed options but they do not require the public normalization, but its absence may be better to ensure the ambiguity of the image, while the preparation for the era after the strikes and the war, and the paths of the longer-range  future of the region, where the Turkish concern stems from the birth of a Kurdish entity which the Turks know that the main advocate of it and the motivator of the American adaptation is Israel, so only a profitable Turkish –Israeli barter can drive the Israeli attention of that seek, Turkey has two answers for fateful Israeli questions, the first one is Turkey’s need for the Israeli gas which flows in the sea in the in the Lebanese-Cypriot-Israeli triangle which does not find a market but only Turkey which looks for an alternative for its dependence from the Iranian Russian exporters of gas, the second one is Israeli’s need for the partnership of Hamas Movement with the Authority of Ramallah in the negotiations that end with accepting a state in Gaza, since it is a payment on account in the Arab initiative for Peace.

It is no longer hidden the Turkish-Israeli negotiation on the gas deals or on the future of Gaza, the announcements talk about them publicly and about the hypothesis of the need to protect the gas line to restrict the influence and the power of Hezbollah which may intervene under the slogan of protecting the Lebanese rights in the Mediterranean waters, as well as about the hypothesis of the Turkish incursion in the northern of Syria in the Kurdish areas,  and a similar incursion for Israel in the southern of Syria, but in both cases there will be something that can be done against Hezbollah.

The region is at steak and the major changes are coming sequentially.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,