Erdogan’s disappointment: the fall of the “Ottoman” and the victory of the “Five seas”

Written by Nasser Kandil,

When he formulated his theory about zero- animosities with the neighborhood Davutoglu did not know that it will lead to his exit humiliated from the rule, by beholding him the consequences of all the animosities against his country from its neighbors, thus presenting his head on a golden plate to the Russian Caesar Vladimir Putin has become an inevitable cost to go on in applying the strategy of the zero- animosities which he formulated, like someone who has dug his grave by himself and putting the sand on his body with his hands. Oglu was knowing that his theory was not known or had a prior approval by his friend, his colleague his President Recep Erdogan, about a call for understanding with the neighboring countries, but rather a media message to the nations in preparation for proposing the theory of the new Ottoman which tries to have control on the Arab countries from the Syrian gate specially, in order to meet what is going to be and what is going in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Yemen, and Morocco from the expansion and growth of the dominance of the Muslim Brotherhood in the rule.

Davutoglu knows that the zero-animosities is not suitable for drawing the major political strategies, where the friendships and the animosities are a result of the politics not a substitute of them, he knows as well that the credibility of the zero-animosities requires an answer for big questions, how will Turkey reposition with its big importance to interact with the historic conflict as the size of the conflict about the future of Palestine, while it does not have neither a possible Israeli recipe for the return of the Palestinian rights, nor it is ready to be positioned in the choice of the resistance, and How will Turkey which links the East and the West and which is affiliated in the first West alliance which is called the Atlantic reposition while it tries to lead the East from the gate of its Islamic identity and history, and while it is at the peak of the conflict in the visions and the interests between the East and the West. The West that feels of the ability to take exclusive possession of ruling the world and it talks about the end of history, the clash of the civilizations and the wars of zero-losses, and it invades Afghanistan and Iraq, and the East that anticipates for its freedom and sovereignty over its resources, adhering to its security and choosing its regimes, their forms, and their symbols through an independent decision, furthermore how and where can Turkey compromise through its multi identities between two projects to fill the strategic gap which started to emerge after the failure of the American Empire campaign, a project that starts from the region for a regional system that is composed of the active countries in the region and takes into consideration the interests of the major powers, and a project of the soft war which the Americans are preparing to launch it through civil wars,   sectarian and ideological strives which undermine the idea of the national state and the strength of the national armies, moreover they will lead to weak countries that can exert pressure on their articulations and their weak points through the sectarian sensitivities to tame and to subject them?

When Turkey launched the project of the new Ottoman, it was knowing that it was doing that through the harmony between the historic ambitions to dominate over the Arab countries and the project of the soft or the smart war which was adopted by the administration of the US President Barack Obama to fill the strategic gap in Asia which resulted from the military failure in the wars, it was certain of the size of the American support which it will receive to facilitate giving the rule to the Muslim Brotherhood in many Arab countries in exchange of the engagement in the war of overthrowing Syria, it was notified from Qatar’s rulers what they heard from the Americans about the transition of the leadership of the Middle East to Turkey and the need to put the financial and the media capacities at their hands. Turkey under the leadership of the bilateral Edogan and Oglu knew what this project required such as welcoming, resettling thousands of the fighters of Al-Qaeda organization and entangling them in a war against Syria, and what it included of the risk of a big sectarian strife in the region, and probably a war that breaks out with Iran, where the support is Israeli and the funding is Saudi, but it was knowing before anything else that it is in the process of the project of the new Ottoman, so it sent its negative response which refuses the project of the President Bashar Al-Assad which carries the name of the system of the five seas countries.

The project of the President Bashar Al-Assad for the countries of the five seas; the Mediterranean and the Red Sea, the Gulf, the Caspian Sea and the Black Sea in 2009 was constituted to form a regional security system that is led by the active and the major countries, and those countries which are demographically or economically balanced or those which have sensitive geography these countries are Russia, Iran, Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Syria, Algeria and Yemen in integration with the  Mediterranean Europe to ensure the security of the energy and the navigation and the seek to solve the disputes by negotiation, making the region free of the weapons of mass destruction, and the cooperation for the development and the economic progress by investing the capacities of the region’s nations and their natural resources. This gathering is not a political alliance but it is a cooperation project that is dedicated by the political geography and the common interests, it says to the West after the failure of its military invasion that their legitimate interests can be kept by ways other than the domination, there is no intention of the region’s nations and their governments which disagree with the policies of the West to continue the war and the revenge, and that the West allies will not pay the cost of its defeat but they will find a place for an honorable partnership in the system of the new East.

The response was by refusing Washington’s allies, so the ruler of Egypt has received his share from those whom he constituted for their project the leadership, so they expelled him. The Saudis decided to go on till the end with the bet on the wars of strives, so they prepared themselves towards their war in Yemen, while Erdogan turned his attention away from Aleppo to Damascus, where the new Ottoman bears or collapses, he exerted Turkey’s importance, closed the way back till everything has reached to its limit, today he is paying the cost along with Turkey which is stained with the blood of the victims as a result of the strikes by those whom Erdogan brought to undermine Syria, the consequences of the war are in favor of the alliances which was constituted of Russia. Iran, and Syria, he decided whatever he wanted to change the nominations to say that the normalization with Russia is a return to the political geography and its rules, he wants to normalize the relations with Egypt, and Iran, and later with Syria, now he in a state of normalizing the relations with Saudi Arabia, but he anticipated steps by normalizing the relations with Israel.

Since the beginning Erdogan’s and Oglu’s crisis with the project of the five seas was the question about the position of Israel, when Erdogna decides to return to the five seas, admits of the fall of the new Ottoman and chooses Moscow to return, moreover anticipates his steps with normalizing the relations with Israel, then he draws the subject of the real coming conflict about the identity of the new regional system and the position of Israel in it. Erdogan has returned from the confusion of the Ottoman to the fact of the five seas without an admission of its maker, and without an admission that there is no place for Israel in the regional system of the security and the economic cooperation.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,