Is settling the refugees serious? In favor of whom?

Written by Nasser Kandil,

When the indicators show the closeness of the occurrence of US shift in the Syrian war, as when the causes of this shift increase, the question becomes how to position in the two sensitive positions as an outcome of the American war, the first is how will Saudi Arabia act, and the second is how will Al-Qaeda organization through its several branches behave with this shift, as it was expected with the end of June, the Americans announced that they are in the process of a major shift in their coordination with Russia, where there is not a current or a near debate about the future  of the Syria presidency, but an admission of the absence of the means that show the desire of his departure, and a parallel admission of the impossibility of the coordination with Russia without this American shift between the priorities,  which the head of the US intelligence said that they will be restricted to the military cooperation with Russia in the war on terrorism, in exchange of the cooperation in neutralizing the opposition which is far away from the terrorist formations from the raids of the Russian and the Syria armies in preparation for a Syrian Syrian reconciliation process that produces a new government and puts a new constitution towards the elections as the resolution 2254 stated.

Along with these indicators which came successively  through articles in the major American newspapers either in Washington Post or New York Times which foreshadowed of change, there were growing reasons for its imposing, so other than the fall of the bet on postponing giving the militants of the opposition which is supported by Turkey and Saudi Arabia accompanied with Al Nusra Front an opportunity of achieving an accomplishment that changes the military scene in the northern of Syria during three months in vain, Turkey started to position according to the equation of the fall of this bet, it went to Moscow accepting the Russian conditions, and now the European Union is confused, troubled, and helpless as a result of the British exit and with the decline of the revenues of the imperial project in addition to the negatives and losses. The presidential American elections are approaching and there is not an opportunity for the precedence of the Democratic candidate but a qualitative progress in the war on terrorism, especially ISIS according to the Americans, who have harvested disappointment in the eastern of Syria with the Democratic units of Syria and the new army that was parallel to their disappointment in the northern of Syria.

The change seems to be fast, but the Russian bet on it was through deadlines that were renewed for three months ago, but with the approaching of the moment, the question becomes dire on how Saudi Arabia and Al-Qaeda will behave, the region has already passed within similar question with the war of Iraq, the American failure and the intention of withdrawal. So what did each of Saudi Arabia and Al –Qaeda do? The Saudis went to the Americans, they said at the spokesman of the King Abdullah to the President George Bush  that reforming the position in Iraq in favor of the Saudi influence is impossible and the alternative which compensates the loss of Iraq by virtue of the demographic composition is Syria, therefore it was prepared for the resolution 1559 on that day, and on that day Al –Qaeda has met the Saudi positioning and it decided to flee to Syria, thus was the starting of building  of the cells and the pillars in Syria since 2004 in addition to the phenomenon of Abu Al QaQaa in the countryside of Aleppo, and today it seems that the positioning of Saudi Arabia and Al-Qaeda with the starting of the American turning is toward Lebanon.

The Saudi speech starts from the demography, while Al-Qaeda speech starts from the geography, the Saudi transition from the Iraqi choice to the Syrian choice as the Time magazine has published in 2003 at the mouthpiece of Bandar Bin Sultan and the King Abdullah based on the popular distribution which was sectarian in the both countries and what this gave Saudi Arabia of elements of power,  while Al-Qaeda bet on Syria based on the position in the northern of Syria in the countryside of Aleppo, Idlib, and the countryside of Latakia in the Syrian Turkish borders, and its closeness to the Mediterranean Sea. Today the Saudi bet seems to be according to what the Americans and the Europeans show of zest other than the concept of the Syrian refugees in Lebanon as was the settlement of the Palestinian refugees in the past and maybe tomorrow, and making a new demographic balance that is measured by the acceptance of the new President, and who puts veto on whom opposes him strongly. According to Western reports there is a thought of resettling two million Syrians in Lebanon, they are the opposition members who will not be able to return back to Syria as a result of their past, their roles in the war, and their families, they are not those who escaped running for a safe place.

The Christian displacement in Bekaa is planned by ISIS to ensure geographical areas without people that allow reaching the northern of Lebanon and its Mediterranean coast, and a bet on alliances there with those who left Al Mustaqbal Movement. The intense strikes on Al Qaa said that the displacement is the goal, and the message is whatever it takes, we will not allow you to be here. Therefore between Al-Qaeda and Saudi Arabia Lebanon is banned from the presidency even if the region has become matured with settlements, where the process is vigorous for the financial pressure to drain the economics, the bankruptcy of the banks, and hitting the pound under the pretext of sanctions on Hezbollah hoping to oblige Lebanon to the Saudi project as a condition to save its banks, its economy and its pound and the release of its kidnapped presidency.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,

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