Are Obama and Hollande really confident of the victory?

Written by Nasser Kandil,

The confident language of achieving the victory on terrorism used by the Western leaders at their forefront what the US President Barack Obama and the French President Francois Hollande after the incident of the horrific collective running over in the French Nice provokes serious questions as the doubt of the credibility of this confidence, because the announced war by the alliance led by Washington and which includes France in the war on ISIS has lasted for two years without any progress where the dependence was on the capabilities of the West, while the progress was just restricted by the role played by the Iraqi army and the Syrian army each one in its geography, accompanied with Iraqi popular crowd and Hezbollah, and supported by Iran. Here we are neither talking about the Western manipulation with terrorism and its intention to employ it and to make use of it in achieving gains, nor about the lack of seriousness in waging the war against it. This Western manipulation explains the weakness of resolving in the war from its beginning, before the aggravation of the risks which it represented, and it explains the reasons of the growth of the terrorist organizations, their expansion, and their rootedness, as it explains the elements of possessing the facilities, the shelters, the weapons, and the capacities by the terrorist formations which enabled them from growing, but this inaction which started to fade with the aggravation of the danger does not explain the failure in waging the war or in winning in it.

Reading the experience of Al-Qaeda and its formations allows identifying the Western manipulation in general and the American in particular in the relationship with the formations of Al-Qaeda, and the outcomes of the Wehhabi thought for four decades ago, as well as the confidence of the ability to control the path of these organizations and determining the limits of their roles as an enemy, but it is an enemy against more dangerous enemies, which once they are the Soviet Union and once they are the countries and the forces of the resistance axis, as well as fighting them by the artificial Islam through the form of Jihadist organizations that are more effective and faster in achieving but they cost less blood, politics, and soldiers. Especially after what the two wars of Iraq and Afghanistan showed as the high degree of the sensitivity of the Western communities towards granting money, men, and blood in wars whatever they seemed convincing in their beginnings, then they became reasons for political radical structural changes if they last, protract, and their cost increases. According to the West and the Americans it seemed that this effectiveness is under control even when it hits in America as has happened in the early of this century, because it forms the main justification for going to war. Today the experience of Syria and Iraq proves the opposite of what the American experience with Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan proved in the stages of understanding and disagreement, because it is no longer possible what was possible before, there is neither ability nor possibility for wars that need an excuse, the American fleets have come to hit Syria, while their plea was available without Al-Qaeda, but they returned back without waging a war. Today there is no confidence that the ruling interest of the West is through attracting the Arab and Muslim popular bases from their supporting the choice of resistance as the matter seemed after the year 2000 by presenting an image of alternative Islamic hero that is represented by Al-Qaeda and which is under control. There is no confidence as well that the interest is in leaving these affiliated formations of Al-Qaeda waging the wars of attrition against the resistance as states and forces.

Syria’s experience proved that the war of attrition is unviable, and that provoking international forces as Russia which intervened in the war and changed its course and through imposing on the West the change from the illusion of the exclusive player towards the understandings which the slogan of the war on terrorism constitutes the only title for it. The experience of Syria proved as well that winning on the terrorism by the resistance forces and who is with it is possible, it is a goal that is near to be achieved, it proved also that those whom the ideology of Al-Qaeda by the titles and the slogans of the sectarianism and the extremism taking them away from the choice of the resistance are no longer friends for the West and they do not remain under control, on the contrary their objective destination becomes the West. There is no attractive unfairness issue for the Muslims of the East despite all the lies about the sectarian persecution, because the unfairness which can be convinced to the Muslims in general is the plundering of the West’s wealth, supporting the authoritarian governments of their country, its blind support to Israel, its violating the sovereignty of the Islamic countries, and applying the ugliest kind of the racial discrimination against Muslims in the Western countries. The Syrian experience proved as well that the Islamic background is incubating the extremism when there is an external issue against an enemy other than the Muslims, as the case of the war of Afghanistan against the Soviet Union or the two wars of Afghanistan and Iraq against the American occupation, or the wars of Chechnya and Kosovo, but in countries where the enemy is from the same Islamic background then there is no incubating background for the extremism by only in Saudi Arabia.

The West and America in particular discovers the difficult situation which it lives. The forces which are able to get rid of the terrorism in Syria and Iraq are the forces that quarrel the American policies, and their victory will be a defeat for Israel the prominent ally of America and the West, in contrast the rootedness of the terrorism is not a Western interest because it possesses a launching point towards the West itself, knowing that the rootedness is not a fate because the forces of the resistance in alliance with Russia seem capable of resolving towards the victory under the limit of common national security interests. In return the American cooperation to achieve victory is making the West win in media and makes it in the bank of the victory against the terrorism but realistically it is no , it changed many equations in the crisis of the West. The terrorism will move more quickly in this case towards the capitals of the West, where the West in the liberated arenas will not have the higher control over them, because the terrorism is able to be rooted in the West more than its ability of doing so in the East. Because in the West the reprisal extremism finds a suitable background due to the presence of Islamic counterbalanced communities that feel of abominable racist treatment, in return their third generation failed to find humanitarian legal treatment that based on the principle of the citizenship, so whenever the extremist terrorism hits, the racism increases in degree, and whenever the racism increases the terrorism increases its rootedness in the incubating environment.

The dark future of the West comes from confronting compound challenges that it is unable to confront. The west wages the wars because it is in trouble and wants to have control over the sources and the ports of the energy, but it lost its wars. The West experienced the game of chaos, it adopted the Ottoman as a title, the Muslim Brotherhood as a mechanism, and Al-Qaeda as a tool but now it loses them, and the game moved to its territory. It withdraws from the East militarily from Afghanistan to Iraq, it sees that Syria, Iraq, Iran, and the forces of the resistance are expanding and having control over the geographical passage which connects the Mediterranean Sea to China. The most important is that the Western communities are living in a state of loss, disintegration, and the dismantling of the issue, and that the social and the economic pressure makes it more rush towards isolation,  so the major entities fall, decline and become types as the European Union. Maybe the United States are vulnerable to disintegration and the escalation of the isolated stages of the identity, this was expressed by the speech of the US presidential candidate Donald Trump, and the emergence of the ethnical and religious potential identities and the weakness of the central state, while the competition on the governmental resources increases, therefore the Muslims in the West become ticking time bomb where Al-Qaeda Organization through its formations gets from it whenever it wants.

The confidence of Obama and Hollande is a media speech for reassuring, but it does not base on any basis, The West will witness dark blackness, so without historic leaders, prudent and real policies the cities of the West will turn to be theatres of civil wars, where the nuclear weapons and the possessing of the strategic weapons and space are not useful in these wars, only the politics is useful, a policy that is able to crack down on the racial discrimination against the Muslims, and raises the issue of the citizenship and law instead of the nonsense speech of beholding the Islam the responsibility of the terrorism. A policy that aspires towards the abroad seeking for settlements that are ruled by the justice and the fairness and to stop playing the game of arrogance, condescension, as well as the admission that the time has changed, and that the world today is no longer the world which was born with the fall of the Berlin Wall a quarter a century ago.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,