Two features that will make the resolving in favor of the Syrian army and its allies

Written by Nasser Kandil,

In the Syrian war there were many armies, intelligence services and capacities of countries and organizations that have met. And it can be said that they summarized what every country in the world might employ in such a war within two limits, first avoiding an international regional comprehensive great confrontation such as what would happen if the Americans insisted on striking Syria after they brought their fleets in 2013. Second, going on in the option of dividing Syria and the region into entities that will be sure on ethnic, racial, and sectarian basis. It was proven that the dominant sectarian color is Islamic, that will extend from the central of Turkey to the center of Syria and Iraq towards Jordan and the Saudi center, that will turn rapidly into pillars and emirates for Al-Qaeda organization in its original and its revised version which is represented by ISIS, while the Mediterranean coast from the borders of Turkey with Greek to the borders of Lebanon with Palestine will turn into different sectarian color which soon will become as an area for the Iranian influence , and the same will be on the Gulf coast which overlooks Iran on the Arab bank from Kuwait to the Eastern area in Saudi Arabia, where new states will dominate over the oil of Gulf and will form an extension of Iran. As a result of these consequences Iran will be granted a strategic superiority over the oil of the Gulf, its water, and its security, and over the Mediterranean Sea, although this superiority will be within an endless war of attrition after giving the Arab and the Turkish interior which is free of oil resources to Al-Qaeda organization, while Israel will get an ally that is represented by the Kurdish state that will constitute on the Turkish-Syrian- Iraqi borders.

The avoidance of these two dangerous options which rule the war on Syria and form a limit of its management did not prevent Washington or the rest of the capitals of the west and the region’s capitals that are involved in this war from the illusion of the bet on the tactical usage of Al-Qaeda organization, or from putting the facilities which it needs to adjust the balances of power, or from employing hundreds of billions dollars. Therefore, for imposing changing the balances tens of armies were mobilized including eavesdropping techniques and espionage, satellites and photographing, tens of intelligence services whether through the intervention’s units which their presence was discovered more than once, or through training or the military coordination, presenting the qualitative weapons or the fiery coverage. In return Syria and its army have got gradually the best of its allies whether through the Iranian experience and ability, the boldness, the high technology, and the field superiority of Hezbollah, or the combating mobilization, the field ability, and the moral and the political value of the Nationalists’ participation, especially the Russian air ability accompanied with the data of monitoring and tracking. It can be said fairly that two allies have met in this war with the best they have. Russia, Iran, the resistance, and Syria on one bank, and America, France, Britain, Germany, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, Israel and Al-Qaeda organization on the other bank. The confrontation has been occurred sequentially, alternately, and gradually and under the limit of “No for the comprehensive war, No for the division and chaos, but giving the heart of the region, its people, and its wild geography to Al-Qaeda organization”.

The war has witnessed a debate and alternation on taking the initiative, but before America resolved its options by going to meet Russia through the option of admitting of the pivotal role of the Syrian country, its president, and its army within the participation in a war on Al-Qaeda organization, and despite the importance of what this admission has imposed as the need that is proven by the incursion of Al-Qaeda and its abilities to affect the West, the strategic necessities that are imposed by the US withdrawal from the Asian mainland in the end of the year, and the need for developing the engagement and cooperation maps that ensures the stability and the vital interests, at their forefronts the smoothness of the energy market, in addition to the tactical needs for prompt timing such as the US presidential elections and the importance of granting the Democratic candidate Hilary Clinton an additional source of power that she needs and which is represented by achieving an impressive victory on terrorism especially ISIS. But what the war showed during five years proved that the balance which rules this war and its course will end the dedicated time of the maneuvers and the negotiations if the American tempering and the prolonged bet on the attrition last. The capable party which is able to impose the reconciliation among Syria’s allies is Russia, and the party which will pay the bill of the open attrition from its sovereignty and its status as a superpower will not be able to avoid its insulting or the tempering in its security, and confronting the threats of new Afghanistan in Syria, if the current year is surpassed and the military standstill remains. Thus the Americans realize that whether they resolve their matter regarding the option of the understanding, or they do not the critical confrontation by Syria and its allies may be delayed but just for months not more. They know the real balances which the years of war showed, and which make the ability to resolve in favor of Syria and its allies a matter that is not subject to debate.

Washington is aware from its experiences with the democratic forces of Syria and others of the Syrian Kurdish groups or the Arab groups that cooperated with it that the fiery coverage which Moscow provides is not better or more important than the one which is provided by the American raids to its allies, and what Iran provides of money, expert, and human mobilization is not more important or higher than those which are provided by Saudi Arabia and Turkey, and that the intelligence and the expeditionary field can be considered balanced and equivalent, but Washington is aware that what the battles of Al Quseir before years and then the battles of Al Qalamoun, Palmyra, and the battles of the southern of Syria and now in the north ensure stable fact that when the confrontation takes place under equivalent conditions regarding the supply lines, the capacity of crowd , securing the weapons and the ammunition, and the realization and the admission of the inevitability of the battle, then the victory will be in favor of Syria and its allies especially the Syrian army and Hezbollah.

Two features that characterized the Syrian army and Hezbollah when they fight together, they constitute a source of concern and insomnia to the leaders of Israel. The two features are first, possessing a harmonious body in its organized parts to form constant unit that follows a symbolic leadership, it trusts it to death, and all the members among it are being consolidated, and it forms despite all the troubles and difficulties a source of the certain victory and an eligibility to sacrifice and giving without return, an undisputable ideal, and an example in the hearts of all its fighters in the two backgrounds of the Syrian army and Hezbollah. What the Syria President Bashar Al-Assad and Al Sayyed Hassan Nasrollah represent in the hearts and the minds of half million fighters who lined up as a sold structure behind their banners and photos is not possessed by any figure or a leader in the opposite party, because their leaders do not have in the hearts and the minds of their supporters what the President and Al Sayyed have in the coherent body of their fighting structures, and what Al Sayyed has in the hearts and the minds of the officers and the soldiers of the Syrian army, and what the President has in the hearts and the minds of the fighters of Hezbollah is impossible to be possessed by any leading group or any opposed country in the war of any allied groups. The contradiction is deep in the hearts and the minds between the announced ideological speech and the announced or the implicit political and the military alliances. So it is enough to say that the groups of Al-Qaeda which is based on a thought entitled fighting of the West find themselves fighting with this West and under its banner, and those who talk about the rulers of the West and the Arabs as an idea, they must be sentenced, because they are fighting under the limits drawn by those, and waiting the capabilities they provide, as well as facilities that they get by them. So they live the schizophrenia whatever they exaggerate or contend stubbornly. This difference is not just moral but it is a military organizational and field one that is shown in the war in each shift, step, and battle.

The second feature is the radial different ratio between the fighting solid body of each of the opposite backgrounds of the total crowded number in the fighting lines compared with the ratio of the random and arbitrary gathering which the military control provides for each team in any geography and which is able to collapse with the first shock. Because the solid body in the structure of the Syrian army and Hezbollah has been shown strikingly through the state of steadfastness of the Syrian army in the besieged areas which has been repeated, and what they presented of championships and epics where hundreds have martyred while they were raising the sign of victory after they starved, became thirsty, and ate the herbs for months. This solid body forms a ratio that is more than three-quarters of the structure between those who carry weapons under the banner of Syria and its war, while the ratio of the beginner volunteers or those who carry weapons in the areas and the districts which are under the control of the Syrian army because of the influence and the interests or the enthusiasm and the tribalism does not exceed the quarter. While the systematic verification is enough to discover that this ratio is completely reverse in the opposite bank, where the solid fighting body does not form more than the quarter of the military structure which is crowded in the fighting lines and carries the weapons, where the scum gathered in the cities and the rural areas forms the main force which was attracted by the armed groups and which formed from them its armed militias. This structure is surrendered, defeated, and collapsed with the first strike, so it is to penetrate it, operate it and employ it, this is in addition, that the characteristic of the solid nucleus does not fit here, because the solid body for the fighting itself is distributed on the loyalties, references and on the feelings under the effect of the contrast between the faith, politics, and the facts.

The Americans may know or not these facts, but they know through the realities and the experience that when the confrontation begins the scale of balance will turn strongly in favor of the Syrian army and its allies, just so far the Americans decided to hurry up to the understanding after they have exhausted the reverse bets.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,