Obama’s days are countable …. Al-Assad’s days are long From the scene of Aleppo to the genius of the Group of Riyadh

Written by Nasser Kandil,

During the past months the talk was about the Russian American negotiation its center is Syria that must be accomplished by the end of August, and thus the left months of the mandate of the US President will be available time to carry out the negotiation’s political and military items. This understanding was as a project and assumption which very few believe in its achievements, while the big majority of those who belong to the two banks of the conflict in Syria believe of its impossibility. The intention is the American recognition of the impossibility of the victory in Syria and the impossibility of passing time to impose the fragmentation and the attrition on Syria and its allies, and leaving the open war ravages Syria till a plan, a perception and a vision are being formulated by the new resident of the White House to ensure better balances of power in favor of America in the equation of Syria and the region and through them the world. Based on the hypothesis of the US recognition on which the understanding is depended, no one discuss or expect that the fate of the Syrian President would be an item in it or a subject in it, after the betters on the willingness and the ability of Moscow to abandon of its first ally in the Middle East had ignored their bets. This understanding grants Washington a partnership in a victory that aims to strike the sites of ISIS in exchange of a partnership in covering the war on Al Nusra front whatever the names change, and inserting those armed groups who can be brought  from under the mantle of Al Nusra in a partnership in the war on ISIS to reserve a seat in a political settlement that based of forming a unified government under the Syrian Presidency in preparation for the end of the war and going to have presidential and parliamentary elections according on a new agreed constitution.

During the last week, the talking about the approach of achieving an understanding emerges, and the ratio of those who transferred from a full denial of the possibility of its occurrence to a possible hypothesis then a probable and maybe inevitable tomorrow has risen. The fundamental in the changes which carried by the process of the preparation for maturing the opportunities of the understanding has been represented by closing the way in front of Washington for the bet on tempering with time, because the hooves of the horse which it has saddled for this game have been broken, it is the Kurdish military body which it has sold it the dream of connected borderline in exchange of waging its war against ISIS, so it gets along without the need for understanding with Moscow that ensures the participation of ground forces which the Syrian army represents its center, which without it, it cannot achieve a qualitative progress in the war on ISIS. What has happened with the development of the US Kurdish option is the acceleration of the maturity of the Turkish Russian Iranian understanding and raising the slogan of sticking to the unity of Syria, in addition to the war on terrorism as a national security issue on which the three parties meet, and where the differenced about the political future of the rule in Syria fade, after Turkey has felt of the prescription of the Kurdish matter of fact,  and felt of the desire of its allies in the war on Syria of accepting the distribution of the military dominance areas in Syria after the recognition of the impossibility of having control over them. This includes the American, the Saudi, and the Israeli, this means a real legitimization of the Emirate of Al Nusra as a cost for Turkey in exchange of legitimization of unannounced Kurdish state which Washington wants, but the Turks have resolved that, because  it is unacceptable void deal so they moved to the reverse deal, its content is removing of Al Nusra Emirate in exchange of removing the Kurdish state, and to be involved within the implicit alliance with Russia and Iran in a reveres role of the Kurdish role in the alliance with Washington. As the Kurds connect the areas of their deployment to complete the borderline, in exchange of every achievement that they present to the Americans against ISIS. The Turks tried to dismantle the sequences of this line, in exchange of every achievement they present to the Russians and Iranians; they withdraw the armed groups from under the mantle of Al Nusra to participate in the war on ISIS. The outcome of the imposing of this accelerating Turkish positioning is in the field not only politically reveals that the Turkish understanding with Russia and Iran has added to the agreement of the barter a danger of the coexistence with the emergence of Kurdish borderline, in exchange of the danger of the coexistence with the Emirate of Al Nusra, they have agreed on the necessity to do everything quickly, thus the matter of fact is not left to be accumulated in the two directions which constitute the left and the right wing for the plan of the democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, while only God knows what can be happened if the candidate Donald Trump reaches to presidency.

The acceleration has imposed on the Americans an acceleration in going to the understanding and resolving the fate of its turning into inevitable choice. The hooves of the Kurdish horse have been broken on one hand, and it became clear that the Russian who prefers to go ahead with a partnership with them has prepared himself to go without them if they miss the train in which the Turkish has occupies their seat. On the rhythms of the negotiation, the preparations and the considerations which lead to the maturation of its procedure details accelerate, starting from the quick resolving of the military colleges in Junbo in the western of Aleppo and ending the opportunities of the US talk about Aleppo with two crossings, one at the hands of the army and one at the hands of the opposition, as well as restricting the talk in the future of Aleppo under the banner of the Syrian army, and opening the door for a mono formula that leads to the exit of the militants or improving their situations. Thus the resolving shows what is more important about who has the upper hand militarily in the Syrian scene, where the stronger meet and where the international and the regional microscope is observing the minute details in Aleppo, it is in favor of the Syrian army without discussion or confusion.

The political arrangements were always complicated into the eyes of the observers, because the problem which is represented by how to organize a retreat the face-saving for the formations of the opposition by accepting a settlement under the presidential control of the Syrian president.  It was not easy to imagine how to overcome it. The US Secretary of State John Kerry was always proposing this problem in order to claim a consolation prize to be presented to this opposition in order to facilitate its involvement in the settlement. Suddenly within a few days, and as Kerry has succeeded in making the Saudis and their group in Yemen who were under the blows of Al Houthis in Najran, Jizan, and Asir saw a settlement that starts with a government of a national unity a possible and an acceptable matter, the developments of Aleppo succeed with the support of a declaration Bin Ali Yildirim the President of the Turkish government by gathering the High Authority of the negotiation in the group of Riyadh which leads the opposition formations, and discussing a genius formula to facilitate the political solution that based on innovating a new phase entitled the pre- transitional phase, as long as there is no place for accepting a role for the Syrian President in the transitional phase. The genius solution is by accepting a partnership with the Syrian President with a pre-transitional phase then the movement to the transitional phase and cancelling it to go immediately to the elections.

Obama’s days are countable … while Al-Assad’s days are long.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,