The Turkish hostility against Iran is not for the sake of war, however for the sake of negotiation

Written by Nasser Kandil,

With the maximum hostile Turkish speech against Iran many people recall the scene of Baghdad Pact in the fifties which included Turkey, Iran represented by Al Shah, Iraq represented by Nouri Al Said, and Pakistan against the rise of Gamal Abdul Nasser and which was under the US support. They see that Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and Jordan are the pillars of a new regional alliance that moves toward escalation against Iran under the US support, which its rise remind them  with  the scene of the rise of Abdul Nasser. Those suppose that the scenarios of the war are within these estimates.

The US endeavor for a regional alliance that is led by the CIA was existing since the days of the US President Barack Obama and still, because the possession of the opportunities for moving by this alliance along with America was better three years ago, when the US fleets came, when Russia has not come to Syria yet, when Saudi Arabia has not been implicated  in Yemen, and before Turkey has started its crisis with Washington regarding sending the preacher Fethulah Gulen and the Kurdish armed forces in the northern of Syria. Before solving these knots this alliance will not have the ability to go beyond the political speech, so the bet on the military escalation in Syria requires asking what does this alliance have after its defeat in Aleppo despite all the differences which were in its favor comparing with any forthcoming battle?.

The negotiation to have a deal with Iran is a common Turkish- Saudi goal that apparently avoids the provocation of Russia, where America and Israel will support it if it ensures the weakening of Iran’s support to Hezbollah. The escalation aims to form a negotiating axis that is able to enhance the ranks of its components and not to in involve into individual negotiations Turkish-Iranian or Saudi – Iranian. The title is about proposals to normalize the relations under the pressures of accusing Iran of the spread of its dominance, and destabilizing countries such as Bahrain and Yemen, supporting the opposition forces there, as well as the spread in each of Syria and Iraq. This is in order to barter normalizing the relations with concessions that the Saudi and the Turkish wish to have from Iran, and which are sought also by both the American and the Israeli.

In the time of the US inability to make a clear strategy after the confusion of the new President in confronting the reluctance of the US military, intelligence, diplomatic, and media institution of his foreign policies. Turkey decided to wait for Washington until their negotiation about Gulen and the Kurds get matured, it has covered its opposed repositioning of Astana path, with  the repositioning at a common bank with Saudi Arabia through which it gains in exchange money and politics entitled the escalation against Iran, in a way that preserves it from a new crisis with Russia, its title is to bargain Iran with openness in exchange of the abandonment of the force of its allies at their forefront Hezbollah, and linking the cooperation in the war on terrorism with the facilitation by Iran to make settlements that keep the group of Turkey and Saudi Arabia in the Gulf with a formal participation of the resistance forces there, and achieve a balanced participation of the group of Turkey and Saudi Arabia in Syria and Iraq. The powerful card which is offered for barter is to make a speech of sectarian strife.

Iran, Russia, and Syria have already said clearly that the presence of Hezbollah in Syria is not a subject for negotiation, and that the cooperation against the terrorism is a common interest of the world and the region countries, because it will provide the elements of success of the war rather than distributing spoils and prices on the participants in advance to ensure their participation. So every escalating attempt to achieve a negotiation means reaching to a deadlock, so will this confrontation lead to a full Turkish-Saudi-Israeli war against Iran or a war led by those once again in Syria?

But nothing like that will happen not due to the lack of desires but due to the lack of capacities, knowing that this has been experienced in better conditions, but was Aleppo and was the defeat. But disabling Astana path in Syria will mean surely that the Syrian army will retake the lead in the field where the armed groups will be behind Al Nusra front. While Erdogan is waiting for Trump for months on the table of the Saudi money selling him illusions, the Syrian army is solving more before the rounds of the negotiation and the tracks become ready, and the graph line will prove what the Russian President did not say to his mariners about his intention to continue the war along with Syria to protect the security of Russia, so it does not matter, the security of Moscow is still from the security of Damascus whether with a political settlement or without.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,