Israeli military process in the southern of Syria and Turkish one in its northern

Written by Nasser Kandil,

There is a lot of talk about the safe zones in the northern of Syria and its southern, where these areas seem as “the cavalier of desert” which is made by the farmers to distract the beasts away from their corps, while the search is serious for an Israeli military process in the southern of Syria that targets sites of Hezbollah to drive it away about sixty kilometers far from the line of the separation of the forces in the Golan Heights through intense strikes and commandos processes that last for few days, and which will lead  along with the ignition of the battlefields, that Israel hopes to be limited an urgent international intervention that re-imposes the work under the agreement of separating the forces which was signed in 1974, and which was applied on Golan front, till Israel violated it in order to support the armed groups, so this led to the announcement of Syria of considering that agreement abolished and opening the front for the forces of the resistance.

In parallel with the southern scenario there is a northern one for which the Turkish army is preparing, but it did not receive the US green light yet. It is based on a wide Turkish intervention in the areas of the deployment of the Kurdish armed groups, having control on their sites and ending their presence, then announcing its readiness to participate in the war on ISIS starting from the north of Raqqa, north of Aleppo, and the north of Hasaka. The Turks make a continuations communication with the Americans to reduce the degree of the US reservation for considering the Kurdish groups a part of the US work system in the region that gets the full protection to the extent of neutrality and the willingness to overlook the process which according to the Turks it needs few weeks, but it achieves its major goals within days according to the Turkish military considerations, if the Americans whose their deployment is intersected with the Kurds stand neutrally.

In respect of the Israeli assumed scenario which aims to have control on the Syrian southern front and securing it, in preparation for the post international regional negotiation stage about the future of Syria, and in contribution to modify the balance of the forces inside Syria through targeting painful blow to Hezbollah that paves the way for the negotiation to get it out of Syria within the US terms on Russia to cooperate in the war on terrorism, the Israelis feel worried that what was said by the Secretary -General of Hezbollah in his last speech about the rules of deterrence which affect the warehouses of Ammonia and the reactor Dimona was an implicit response to this scenario, after Hezbollah has known that Israel is preparing to do something. In the light of what is known by the Israelis about the degree of the intelligence incursion of Hezbollah in the Israeli institution, they read the speech carefully to know how will Hezbollah implement its threats without igniting the front of Lebanon?. And whether it has the capacity of heavy missile bombard from outside Lebanon or probably from mysterious Lebanese –Syrian bordered areas without revealing the launching points of its missiles or implicating Lebanon in confrontation, that explain the repetitive Israeli raids, but only when Israel is infected to the extent of opening the Lebanese front and targeting goals inside Lebanon, so it will spend its surplus power in the war and thus Israel would have fallen into traps twice.

The Israelis wonder by linking the previous speeches of Nasrollah with his last speech about the demise of the gradient phase in targeting the Israeli depth according to the equation “Haifa, beyond Haifa, and beyond beyond Haifa” and the possibility of going directly to the most important, farthest, and to the most harmful goals and maybe within the first day of the war, and by linking with the speech of Nasrollah about the ground war and his warning that Hezbollah would be the initiator to the next war when the front of Lebanon is opened, so the Israeli concern becomes from a scenario of starting the war in the southern of Syria through being infected by limited but effective number of heavy missiles in the deep depth from the first day and from mysterious place. Therefore, the Israelis will be forced to open the front of Lebanon, and thus it will be the start of the paradigm shift in which Hezbollah uses the elite units for the land incursion in the depth of Galilee and Golan, then Israel will enter into bigger complexities than what it planned for, and perhaps  it becomes difficult for it to end the war without serious losses and without experiencing the defeat and losing the control on the paths if the attempts of Hezbollah succeeded in hitting strategic goals in the depth, or if its fighters succeeded in the ground incursion, so who is putting an end to the threats, and who will get back those who entered lands which according to them they are occupied?

In the northern of Syria, there is the Turkish scenario around which there were fears that are no less than the Israeli fears, first what is related to the Turks through the US sticking to the relationship with the Kurdish groups, through supplying them with more weapons, towards what was announced by the Americans about providing anti-aircraft missiles to the opposition groups, which they know that the intention is the Kurdish groups and the Democratic Forces of Syria which they lead them, and that the danger of confronting the aircraft does not come neither from ISIS nor from the Syrian army but from the Turkish army, the second reason for the Turkish concern is the clever strategic movement of the Syrian army by leaving the Turks entering the northern of Al-Bab city paying high cost in confronting ISIS and getting involved in bearing the consequences of the announcement of the war on ISIS which emerged under their sponsorship till the depth of Turkey becomes a goal for it, then the Syrian army turned from the southern of Al Bab city towards the northeast towards meeting the demarcation line of the Democratic forces of Syria and the Kurdish groups beyond Tedef, and thus the Turkish progress towards Manbej and then to Raqqa is doomed with the collision with the Syrian army. The Turkish fear from further overlapping between the Syrian army and the Kurds makes the desired process a war project with the Syrian army, that they cannot bear tits consequences and Moscow will not allow it, while Washington is still refusing the complacency in the process.

Some of the followers say that the Israeli speech about the arrival of the Russian advanced superior  Yokhont missiles which are used  for precise injuries for sea and ground goals to the hand of Hezbollah  means the announcement of overlooking of the process which will turn into unbearable process, and that the Turkish speech about the keenness to have a cooperation with the Americans and the Russians in their military processes is a kind of an answer to US Russian warnings from committing any folly, but neither Hezbollah nor the resistance, nor the Syrian army, and nor the Kurds can  stop thinking and preparing for facing all the possibilities away from the analyses and their accuracy. The armies are living in alertness for the worst possibilities, rather than depending on the best analyses.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,