Washington is weaker than waging a confrontation

Written by Nasser Kandil,

The dropping of the Syrian plane in Raqqa by the Americans formed an opportunity to show the war of wills between Washington and each of Moscow and Tehran around Syria, and to determine who has the upper hand in it, after Washington has suffered from successive defeats in an attempt to prove is presence as a party that is capable of drawing red lines, imposing rules of equations and balances, and having control over what is called the rules of engagement. The first attempts were with the high ceiling speech of the US President Donald Trump about Syria after the incident of Khan Sheikhoun, which the President Vladimir Putin was sure that it is bad Hollywood direction by Washington to carry out deliberate strike on Shuairat Airport. The hesitation and the confusion have soon accompanied the implementation of the strike, the Russians were notified about it a few hours before it and it passed without any military impact despite the US illusions about a panic that will affect the Syrian army and its morals, and will lead to a change in the balances of its war with the armed groups, leading to the displacement of thousands of the Syrians from their country, but nothing has happened like that, even the minimum level which is supposed by the Americans by choosing Al Shuairat Airport to draw a red line in front the Syrian army and its allies to stop the war and to restore what is seized by the armed groups in the outskirts of Damascus and the countryside of Hama after the invasion of Mohammed Bin Salman after his visit to Washington has not happened, on the contrary the areas have become successively under the control of the Syrian army during two weeks. The US supposed red line to prevent the Syrian army from progress in Badia has been fallen with the dashing of the Syrian army from Palmyra to beyond Palmyra and beyond beyond Palmyra.

In the second time, the Americans started to organize troops trained and armed in Jordan, they coincided their movement with maneuvers entitled “the Eager Lion” to talk about the process of the southern front. The Jordanian King started talking about the preemptive security, suggesting to the participation of his army and his flight inside the Syrian territories and airspaces, and then this coincided with the US raids in Badia to prevent the Syrian army from reaching the Syrian-Iraqi borders. In these two times the position of Russia and Iran was crucial through the announced position and the field steps along with Syria and Hezbollah, after refusing a bribe offered to Moscow by Adel Al-Jubeir through showing the readiness in committing to the call of the Secretary of State Rex Tellierson to accept the stay of the Syrian President in exchange of the exit of Hezbollah from Syria. The Russian response was harsh, that Hezbollah in Syria is legitimate exactly as the Russian air forces. The field witnessed crowds of the Syrian army towards Daraa and Badia along with the elite units of Hezbollah and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. The Russian flight was active in the areas which it did not participate in bombing before, taking into consideration the relations with Jordan and Israel. Everything was put to ensure the victory of the Syrian army and its allies by saying to Washington that the red line in the southern of Syria has been fallen and the red line on the borders with Iraq has been fallen as well. Today the matter is resolved by facts and become above the capacity of the Americans to return back to the previous situations.

This time the Americans pretended to be clever by saying that the war on ISIS in Raqqa is their exclusive responsibility and they behold it in the field to the Kurdish groups, they are ready to apply that on all the possibilities, they have lost an ally as Turkey in order not to lose that principle. The issue as all the issues of America,  the principle depends on the interest, the US interest by staying in Syria is related organically to two conditions; an issue that must not end; as the war on terrorism through a war led by Washington in which ISIS can be moved from one area to another, and a coverage that is granted the legitimacy, and has a formative identity in the Syrian society, here the choice is known, it is the Kurds, but Syria and its allies succeeded in disrupting the US plan, they prevented the rolling war in favor of a war of resizing ISIS, they drew the map to close the secure corridors which were arranged by the Americans to ISIS towards Badia, they tried to attract ISIS making use of the US desire of rolling in order to transfer the battle of termination to Deir Al Zour, they surrounded Deir Al Zour from all directions to make the war arena  under their control. But when the Americans noticed that the matters have become out of their control they raised the tension by dropping the plane to keep the matters under their control and agenda.

The answer came; the Syrian army and the allies will continue their plan to approach Deir Al Zour, to enhance their presence in it, to make a progress in Badia and the borders with Iraq, to coordinate with the Iraqis whether the Iraqi army or the Popular Crowd, and to continue their progress in the countryside of Raqq and at the course of the Euphrates. The Iranians have sent missile message to Deir Al Zour, which its chosen as a goal was not in vain. The Russians announced that they will consider any flying object in the areas of their military operations a goal for their missiles after they canceled the working under the understanding of preventing the collision with the Americans in the Syrian airspaces, so how did Washington behave?

Washington responded by asking Moscow immediately to return to the understanding, and to consider the dropping of a plane an incident resulted from the lack of coordination in a geographic spot in which the forces have become working closely. The Russians responded this can be through one of two conditions; either to be sufficient with an understanding to prevent the collision and in this case not the Russian flight will be involved only but the Syrian flight too, or to coordinate in the war on ISIS by land and air, and in this case there must be a coordination with the Syrian army. Washington is still confused, it tries to adapt to less expensive choices, after Moscow has adjusted the conditions of the return to understanding, so for whom the high hand? And who will be ready to prove the superiority of the will at the end?

Washington is living in a state similar to the state experienced by it when it came with its fleets at the era of the President Barack Obama, and it discovered that due to the Russian and Iranian positions and the readiness of Syria and the resistance that it faced the choice of the full war, so it retreated and accepted the face-saving with the political solution of the Syrian chemical weapons, but with one difference this time, it will not get a compensation for the retreat, it has to accept the new equations which are drawn by sacrifices, and which are fixed by the Russian and Iranian cross-missiles or to go the full war if it is ready, but the time of testing the intentions has ended. The lesson is that the pretension to be clever does not replace the cleverness, the pretension to be strong does not replace the strength, and the psychological war does not replace the actual war, because neither the owner of the land is as the occupier, nor the owner of right is as the trader.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,