Beyond Al Mosul: who is the victorious?

Written by Nasser Kandil,

After the entry of the Iraqi army to Al Nuri Mosque from which Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi the leader of ISIS announced his country three years ago, a stage of the history of the region which its remaining chapters are still waiting the appropriate time to be deleted from history and geography has ended. Where the remnants of ISIS in Syria and Iraq may take a time till the end of the year to be eliminated, but in politics it is possible to assert that ISIS the hybrid creature which formed a turning point in the wars of the region and the security of the world, and with which Washington has foreshadowed that it will last for more than ten years, and which it adopted as a reason for its re-positioning in the region , and its seeking to control the political and the military geography, as well as in mixing the papers and the alliances and drawing the red lines  has become from the past.

With the elimination of ISIS the justification of the American presence in Syria and Iraq will end, along with the military alliance of the war on ISIS. The war on terrorism has other forms that do not need the military presence especially in the two countries in which the terrorism in the other countries is represented by dormant and active cells which are more active than those which are still in Syria and Iraq. With the elimination of ISIS and the cover of the American presence under the plea of the war, the Kurdish militias which were given a military privacy and the illusion of separation will lose the cover which allows them to face the danger of Turkish war and the Syrian objection which will converge on getting rid of the project of a state before its birth. Israel will lose the opportunity of negotiation and barter which settled by Washington, under the title of ISIS versus Hezbollah and the issue that concerns Riyadh a lot; the departure of the Syrian President in exchange of the salvation of Syria and Iraq.

Washington, along with Israel and Saudi Arabia, tried to arrange papers so as to prolong the war or to change its rules. Thus were the raids and strikes, the threats and the red lines. Despite the losses and the obstacles made by them in front of the path of victory, they could not prevent the popular crowd from closing the road of withdrawal in front of ISIS towards Syria from Tal Afer and Baaj. As well as they could not prevent the Syrian army from closing the road of withdrawal of ISIS towards Badia, and were unable to prevent the chances of the Syrian army and the popular crowd meeting across the Syrian-Iraqi borders Today they do not seem able to prevent any of the inevitable results of the course of the war, even if they succeeded in causing more losses and obstacles.

Washington along with its two allies Israel and Saudi Arabia seem testing their last pressure paper which is the disabling, and preventing the political solution in Syria which without it the Syrian victory will lose the legitimacy it needs. The seeking to disrupt Astana by boycotting the groups under the Saudi-Israeli influence is clear, On the other hand, the participation of the groups affiliated to Turkey is clear too, as a new title; the linkage between the war on terrorism and the future of Al Nusra and the Kurdish state. While the Russian-Iranian-Syrian alliance and the American-Saudi counterpart line up on two opposite sides.so Turkey and Qatar have to choose between them.

Syria is facing gradual stages from the political solution at the pace of military developments, the consolidation of Astana instead of Geneva, which Washington co-sponsors and thus disabling, to the regional legitimacy of the victory over terrorism and the beginning of the political solution of a unified government under the auspices and recognition of Astana partners, ending with a station still pending in Geneva; the restoration of Syrian of its control over the entire Syrian territory, starting from the north and east from  Idlib to Qamishli to the south. Geneva path will start, so the Americans will be forced to join the political solution and to recognize the legitimacy of victory unless Israel matures and presents a theory of war at the table of the major solutions in the region that precedes the solution in Syria and prevents the facing of challenges that follow the Syrian victory and its threats by bearing the losses of postponed settlement in avoidance of losses of forthcoming war.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,