Accelerated variables

Written by Nasser Kandil,

In a few days and despite the noise of the battles and the powerful statements there are accelerated indicators for the presence of comprehensive framework to calm the wars and to solve the crises, these indicators transcend their existential and regional borders. In the Korean crisis and after two days of exchanging powerful American and north-Korean statements that talk about overwhelming blows, the US Defense Secretary announced the intention of Washington to negotiate through third parties. It is known that it is an outcome of authorizing Russia and China for managing the negotiating of the crisis. The southern Korea announced its desire to negotiate directly with the northern Korea.

Regarding the Gulf crisis, the backgrounds which talk about decisive steps of the countries that boycott Qatar led by Saudi Arabia have declined and were replaced by the talk about negotiating review of the crisis; the talk about a dialogue has become the vocabulary that was repeated in the international and regional statements that concerned with the issue of the crisis, after the opportunities of the fatal blows which Saudi Arabia have betted on for more than two months have been exhausted. While in the war on Yemen the talks of the UN envoy are revolving around identifying a third agreed party that will take over the responsibility of Al Hodeida port and Sanaa airport as a preliminary step to raise the marine and the air blockade which was imposed by Saudi Arabia and which was its means to subdue the Yemenis. Now there is a talk about suggested international force, or Omani force, or joint Omani-Kuwaiti force for this purpose.

In Syria, the Syrian army is dashing with a military force eastward in Badia towards Deir Al Zour, but it is driven militarily by political accompaniment  in the south on the rhythm of the Russian-American understanding after the armed groups  have refused the voluntary handing over of their areas to the Syrian especially the borders with Jordan, so the Syrian army resolved the crossings in the province of Sweida away from the US aircraft which ambushed of its units as has happened on the Syrian-Iraqi borders. The militants have withdrawn after they got severe blows. At the political level, it seems that the formation of the opposition delegation for the next Geneva until the end of the year is the title of the dialogues which are taking place under the title of unified delegation of the opposition in parallel with the disintegration and alienating leaderships that have no place in the new equation. This new equation is based on forming Syrian government that includes a representation of the opposition under the Syrian presidency and the Syrian constitution, and the recognition of the fall of the project of overthrowing and the priority of the war on terrorism.

Regarding the Ukrainian crisis and despite all the differences about how to solve it and what has resulted on the diplomatic crisis between Russia and America after imposing US sanctions on Russia and the decision of Moscow to alienate the US diplomats, the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced after Manila meetings with his US counterpart Rex Tillerson the ensuring of the understandings of the Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. Therefore the American and Russian officials will soon meet to discuss revitalizing the solution efforts in Ukraine.

These accelerated developments and variables grant high credibility to what was leaked about an understanding between the Russian and the American Presidents on the sideline of Hamburg Summit about the seeking to make the international arena free of the tension elements by the end of the year, and the attempt to make the most prominent image of the international policy is the cooperation in the war on terrorism. This means extinguishing the spark that ignites fire or preventing its ignition. As a result we will gradually witness the loss of the incentives and resources of wars which they cannot last without them. This ensures that they are wars that have been broken out and continued by an external decision whatever were the local and the internal reasons, since no war lasts without the international incubator as what is presented by Washington or what it suggested to its allies that it is presenting, so when it decides then those who were contending stubbornly yesterday will obey today.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,