What has changed after the fall of the Israeli warplane?

Written by Nasser Kandil,

The possibility of war will not be put aside after the dropping of the Israeli warplane by the Syrian air defense, on the contrary, it becomes a need for Israel after the prestige of its air defense has been affected and after its deterrence ability which it tried to restore has been eroded, and it becomes in need of more deliberation in the face of the complexities of every setback that affects the image of the Israeli strength, So how if the setback has affected the pillar of the Israeli force on which the decision of war is built ,and what is represented by the air defense and in particular  F16 on that basis?

Neither Syria nor the axis of the resistance is in need to exaggerate in reading the results to the extent of controversy, but just to read the results and the variables accompanied such of that event accepted by the Israelis and the Americans. What has happened is important, and it will leave its impacts on the balances of the regional forces, the Israeli deterrence ability, the image of the Israeli army, and the air defense which it boasts of, since it is the destination of the Gulf governments as a protector and a reliable partner in confronting Iran and its allies, so due to this strength Israel became the most important ally of America in the region.

This explains how Israel inserted the Iranian involvement in what has happened and made it a title of the confrontation in order to escape from the recognition of the strength of Syria and its capabilities, and in order to avoid the inconvenience of Russia and its withdrawal from any truce, knowing that it was more reasonable to behold Russia this involvement, if the required was to create a bigger enemy than Syria to maintain the image of Israel which has been affected.

What is more important is that it is the announcement that Syria has completed the reconstruction of its air defense system. This was already announced by its foreign minister with the start of the Turkish military operation in the northern of Syria in written official statement. But due to the arrogance of Israel, it ignored to read its content. So Syria which bore a lot from the Israeli persistence through the belittlement of its capacity, army and the violation of its sovereignty repeatedly would not dare to do so if it did not complete the structure and its air defense system, especially because it ended the first stage of this task a year ago, and made its airspace prohibited in front of the Israeli aviation, now it enters the stage of banning targeting its territories from the Lebanese airspace.

Because the war is the cleverness of choosing time, so it is important to understand the meaning of the confrontation between the Syrian and the Israeli timing at a moment where both of them needs to record a crucial point. During this month Syria was exposed to escalating pressures in order to create a situation that imposes a negotiating project proposed by America under the title of the document of five; by freezing the military project of the Syrian army by regaining the Syrian geography relatively, and encouraging the share of influence among the international and regional partners on the Syrian territories, and by abolishing the project of the Syrian country and turns it into a group of autonomous areas and cantons under a long UN mandate authority. It is a project that meets the American and the Kurdish interests, as well Israel and its border line under the control of Al Nusra, Turkey and its northern canton, and Saudi Arabia and its canton in Ghouta, in addition to the common interests of everyone to disrupt the formation of a Syrian country as a partner of the resistance axis, since it forms a different international and regional challenge at the level of the balances of forces.

The Turkish strikes in the northern of Syria and the entry of the Turkish army onto more than the Syrian territories have been coincided with the escalation of the American positions about forming Syrian forces affiliated to Washington, and with painful strikes that targeted the popular military structures of Syria, as well as with accelerated Israeli military escalation that becomes wider gradually. The Russian bases were exposed to attacks that exceed the ability of the armed groups followed by the dropping of the Russian aircraft with traditionally unavailable weapons. While media and diplomatic focus targets the Syrian country and accuses it of using the chemical weapons, Russia has been exposed to more pressures under this title, in order to get Syria out as a main capable partner in the political process. This is accompanied with media and diplomatic focus on the Iranian presence and the weapons of Hezbollah as a direct objective that must be neutralized, according to the positions of the senior American and Israeli officials.

This interconnected series of the escalated events which showed the accuracy of the Israeli timing and its need to record a decisive point of superiority was a chance for Syria after the completion of its air defense system to strike the most powerful force represented by the Israeli air force defense and the status of F16. It became clear that each of Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah is targeted, because what is going on is a prelude to grasp the gains achieved by this alliance in Syria in the years after the understanding on the Iranian nuclear program. The progress of the Syrian state in its air defenses by representing the alliance which fought and won in many of the battles of the region is the best response which infects the last opportunities of the opposite alliance for changing the rules of engagement and grabbing the lead.

The dropping of the Israeli warplane by the Syrian air defenses imposed narrow margins in front of the opponents of Syria and its allies, so either to accept the calming and what it imposes of new rules or to proceed in escalation and what it poses of unguaranteed consequences in the most difficult circumstances. It is clear that the alliance of Washington and Tel Aviv and Turkey and Saudi Arabia implicitly has been confused. What will happen if the Americans repeat the raids of the northern of Deir Al Zour, and will their planes expose to missiles? Can the Turks ignore what will happen if their planes entered the Syrian airspace and ignored the Syrian warning? What will Israel do? And what will Saudi Arabia and Turkey do in front of the progress of the Syrian army through its military operations in Idlib and Gouta?

What is the most important is that the mechanism of war industry in Israel as a central strength among its allies has been affected seriously. The public opinion as a decisive partner in this mechanism depends on two basic elements, that despite everything that has affected the deterrence ability of the occupation army, it still has the air defense which no one can confront and challenge it. Second, its government is based on international relationships that make its considerations very accurate with guarantees start with Washington and end with Moscow, so that makes the hypothesis of testing the Israeli capability out of debate, but these two elements have been affected  deeply .

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,