Albinaa’ Newspaper August 12, 2024
Nasser Kandil
From the first day of Al Aqsa Deluge and the war waged in response by the occupying entity with full support from America and the West, two wars were being waged simultaneously and in parallel, a war titled Gaza and another titled deterrence. The Israeli-American duo clearly defined the aims for the Gaza War: the elimination of Hamas and the other Al Mukawama forces, and the retrieval of the prisoners from Gaza without negotiations, while the war of deterrence was proceeding to prove the entity’s ability to regain the stature it lost the day of the Deluge by proving its capability of eliminating Al Mukawama, and for Washington to prove her ability to deter Al Mukawama Axis, and prevent it from any backing for Gaza and her Al Mukawama there.
The Gaza War and the backing provided by the supportive fronts has created a reality impossible to be overturned, in that facts were established which no American- Israeli military plan can annul. Starting from Gaza, Al Mukawama in Gaza has demonstrated her capacity to persevere in combat and inflict serious harm to the Israeli military, both human and material, leading it to be powerless to talk about victory, confirmed by the letter of the high-ranking combat field commanders in the Israeli army. Al Mukawama also proved that her elimination is like blowing ashes in the eyes according to the statement of the occupation’s military spokesman a month ago. Furthermore, the prisoners continue to be held by Al Mukawama, operations for their release by force have failed, with the calls to return to negotiations to secure their release giving a good indication of failure.
Added to the realities of the Gaza War immune to modification, either by massacres or assassinations, with the paths to the elimination of Al Mukawama and the forced retrieval of the prisoners blocked, is the acknowledgement of negotiations with Al Mukawama, synonymous with the acknowledgement of her presence and power, to ensure her participation in prisoner exchange to secure the release of the entity’s prisoners. Al Mukawama’s terms of linking their release with the release of thousands of Palestinian prisoners from the occupation’s prisons, ending the war on Gaza, full withdrawal, and lifting the embargo, are all the subject of negotiations ongoing for months, made most clear in the proposal offered by the mediators and accepted by Hamas this past May 6th, regardless of subsequent attempts to lower a ceiling here and insert a modification there.
The Iranian response on April 14 for the attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, in the war of deterrence, reinforced the entity’s deterrence losses, namely deterrence lost the day of the Deluge, and failure to impose deterrence on Lebanon’s front. It further revealed the entity’s inability to tolerate the consequences of a response to the Iranian response, as well as the absence of the capability of self-defense, and the extent to which it relies on American protection. America’s deterrence failure was uncovered when carriers sent by President Joe Biden to prevent any part in Al Mukawama Axis from opening a front to support Gaza, with the mere opening of these front and continuously escalating operations in support of Gaza a confirmation of such failure. Then came the biggest American failure in the deterrence war with the confrontation between the American fleets and Yemen, the result being Yemen’s imposition of her will, and for the past 9 months, having the say on which vessel is allowed to cross the Red Sea which vessel is prohibited from passing.
The high-level escalation the region has entered with the aggression on both of Lebanon and Iran and the assassination of two high-level Commanders in Al Mukawama, and what followed in unprecedented American military amassment, both qualitatively and in quantity, to deter any response by Iran and Al Mukawama, and its confrontation in the event their deterrence failed, cannot open the Red Sea for the prohibited vessels, nor return the settlers displaced from the north of Palestine, nor release the prisoners in Gaza. What it hopes for is to influence these courses in the war in Gaza in which victory has been decided in Al Mukawama’s favor, through regaining deterrence, and to negotiate from the position of having regained the power of deterrence, with the large scale operations (aggressions on Al Dahieh and Tehran and assassinations) intended as the first indication of the return of deterrence power in favor of the occupying entity, and the American military amassment to prevent a response serving as an affirmation of the entity’s regained deterrence, and building on top of it an additional deterrence, the American one, even if its translation means proving it by fending off Iran’s and Al-Mukawama’s drones and missiles.
Iran and Al Mukawama are fully aware that the deterrence war has the decisive word in confirming in their favor, or weakening from it, the gains from the achieved victory. They are also fully aware that the outcomes of the deterrence war will rule the regional equations, in particular the future of the American occupation in Syria and Iraq, the future of the upcoming settlement in Yemen, and the future of the regional equilibrium and relations between forces of influence there. It is why Al Mukawama engages in the deterrence war responsibly, and with precision, courage, and wisdom, the victory of which, Al Sayyed Nasrallah said, he is confident, whether by one or several rounds, and which Al Mukawama prepares to engage in as a fight for protecting and rendering firm her accomplishments, in order to arrive at building new regional equations which have at their heart Palestine as a priority.
