Khamenei Cautions Against Exaggerating or Downplaying the Assault, Urges Leadership to Convey a Message of Strength / Burns in Doha Seeking an Impossible ‘Win-Win’ Solution for Gaza and Lebanon After Military Setbacks

 October 28, 2024

The political editor wrote

The Israeli military’s recent assault on Iran fell short in comparison to Iran’s response earlier this month and against the bold rhetoric of Israeli leaders, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.

Despite deploying 120 warplanes and 300 drones, Israel refrained from targeting Iran’s critical infrastructure, particularly the nuclear program – a long-standing strategic ambition for Netanyahu and the essence for his hegemony over the region and plans for the so-called ‘new middle east’.

This restraint signalled a clear U.S.-Israeli apprehension about severe repercussions, resulting in a limited focus on Iran’s air defence and missile systems. Iran, however, intercepted and downed most of the drones in the first wave, disabling Israeli radars and air defences, which prevented Israeli F-35s from penetrating Iranian airspace, forcing them to launch missiles from Iraqi skies. This underscored the strength of Iran’s air defences and its diplomatic success in preventing Israeli access to airspace over U.S.-aligned Arab countries, particularly Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Iran intercepted most missiles, mitigating the damage.

Following the attack, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned that both exaggerating and downplaying the assault would be misguided, urging Iranian leadership to communicate a strong message that Israel seems yet to comprehend – signalling a commitment to a powerful response.

On the political front, renewed mediator discussions on Gaza in Doha, attended by CIA Director William Burns, reflected American concerns over Israel’s growing strategic vulnerability and its incapability to achieve military gains in Gaza as resistance operations continue to escalate, while Israel’s actions devolve into massacres and indiscriminate violence. Meanwhile, in Lebanon, Israel is locked in a fierce and draining war of attrition, with daily casualties nearing 100 soldiers and officers. The failed assault on Iran marks the end of Israel’s window of opportunity, raising questions about Burns’ purpose in the region. If advancing Israeli proposals was unfeasible when Israel held military initiative, it is even less viable now and a ‘win-win’ solution appears impossible. It seems that a ceasefire on both the Lebanese and Gazan fronts is conditioned on Israel acceptance of resolutions 1701 and 2735, obliging it to coexist with a strong armed resistance on both its northern and southern borders.