November 20, 2024
By Nasser Kandil
• Following the Democratic Party’s loss in the presidential election, outgoing President Joe Biden authorised Ukraine to use U.S. long-range missiles to strike deep within Russian territory. In response, Russian President Vladimir Putin adjusted the conditions for deploying nuclear force, signalling that any existential threat to Russian security would warrant such measures.
• Biden’s decision is not solely driven by the deteriorating situation on the Ukrainian front and the imminent risk of a Ukrainian military defeat. It must also be seen in the context of President-elect Donald Trump’s announced position, which promises to end the war through negotiations with Putin to reach a compromise.
• After the U.S. announcement, similar statements came from France and the U.K., while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appealed to Germany, which has opened a channel of negotiation with Russia, to align with this escalation. However, Germany has so far refrained from doing so.
• The future of NATO, Europe’s geopolitical standing, and relations with Russia are now on the table, split between two approaches: negotiation and confrontation. Proponents of negotiation see NATO as unnecessary, a position that appears to have early support from Germany and aligns with Trump’s outlook. On the other hand, proponents of confrontation, who cling to NATO’s relevance, fear Trump’s potential impact on the alliance’s future
• President Putin, however, is not waiting for Trump to take office, nor does he rely on anything other than Russia’s strength. He has made it clear that any relationship with a U.S. administration must be predicated on acknowledging Russia’s power and respecting its strategic position. If Trump seeks a settlement, Putin expects it to stem from the anxiety over the consequences of further escalation.
• With just two months left in Biden’s presidency, the world stands on the brink of catastrophe, with the looming threat of nuclear war. Russia’s invocation of its nuclear weapons protocol is not an empty gesture, and pleas from figures like French President Emmanuel Macron – who commands little respect in Moscow – will do nothing to deter it.
• Developments in Ukraine could quickly spiral out of control, igniting a massive conflict. On one side is a desperate Zelensky, wielding dangerous weapons, and on the other is a resolute Putin, unwilling to tolerate provocation.
