November 21, 2024
By Nasser Kandil
• Russian field actions have accelerated in response to Washington’s continued provocations, the latest being the provision of long-range missiles to Ukraine and the clear directive given to Ukrainian leadership to use these missiles to target Russian territory. Moscow has repeatedly warned that such provocations could lead to consequences threatening the outbreak of a nuclear war.
• The Americans, acting out of arrogance, helplessness, and denial, remain unable – along with their Ukrainian ally and NATO partners – to alter the battlefield dynamics, where Russian forces make daily advances in eastern Ukraine. This progress continues despite Ukraine’s incursion into the Kursk salient, an operation pushed and financed by Washington. Meanwhile, Washington denies the reality that Ukraine has depleted its human resources for war, resorting to humiliating and degrading applications of mandatory conscription of its youth, exposing the collapse of the Ukrainian will for war. Ukraine’s collapse now appears to be only a matter of time.
• The U.S. tactic of targeting Russian territory under the guise of Ukrainian operations does not change the reality that these actions are American provocations. Russia cannot ignore this reality without appearing deterred or fearful.
• Faced with this, the Russian leadership has revised its nuclear doctrine, specifically the conditions for the use of nuclear weapons. The new doctrine considers an existential threat posed by a nuclear power as justification for their use – a direct characterisation of Washington’s actions masked behind Ukraine. This shift explains the extended meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and the commander of Russia’s Aerospace Forces, reportedly dedicated to finalising a nuclear response plan in preparation for the issuance of orders.
• American recklessness with global peace now risks plunging the world into nuclear war. Unless Washington de-escalates its provocations against Russia via Ukraine, the world seems headed toward an unprecedented peril. Unlike the use of nuclear weapons in World War II against Japan, which was a unilateral action, or the Cuban Missile Crisis, narrowly averted through a Soviet-American political settlement where Moscow withdrew its weapons in exchange for U.S.’s pledge not to invade Cuba, today’s crisis pits nuclear powers directly against each other.
• To prevent catastrophe, an agreement equivalent to the Cuban Missile Crisis resolution is required – one that entails the withdrawal of American missiles and opens the door to negotiations for resolving the Ukraine war. Without such a settlement, and if President Joe Biden continues to provoke, his successor, Donald Trump, may not inherit a solvable Ukraine crisis. Instead, he could find himself presiding over a nation embroiled in a nuclear war.
