November 29, 2024
Nasser Kandil
• The recent offensive by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani’s brigades on Aleppo at the same time with the incapacitation of Israel’s Golani Brigade in South Lebanon is no coincidence. The war against Lebanon’s resistance has been a deferred Israeli objective since its defeat in the 2006 July War. For the occupying entity, war is a perpetual strategy, always awaiting the opportune moment. This reality became evident following the al-Aqsa Flood operation. Every escalation the occupier has directed against the resistance was not spontaneous but part of prearranged American and Israeli plans, ready for activation when the time was ripe.
The war on Syria, too, bears Israel’s imprint, regardless of its ever-shifting partners – from Washington to Ankara, from terrorist organisations to certain Arab capitals that provided funding, media support, and religious decrees. This war mirrors the campaign against the resistance, aiming to dismantle the region’s strategic assets to establish Israeli supremacy: “Greater Israel” through occupation and “Mighty Israel” through hegemonic influence. Success in one front is designed to render the other unnecessary. Israel has openly admitted that its strikes on Syria target not only Syria but also Hezbollah. Had the war on Syria achieved its goals, there would have been no need for the current campaign against Lebanon’s resistance, and vice versa.
• Jabhat al-Nusra, now rebranded as Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, has declared itself the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda, pledging allegiance to Ayman al-Zawahiri. This is the same Nusra that former Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon labeled an ally in 2014, entrusted with securing Israel’s eastern border. Today, it is the same Nusra that Turkey seeks to integrate into the political process, arguing that its rebranding nullifies its terrorist designation. This same Nusra now under its new name launched a large-scale assault on Syrian Army positions yesterday, backed by Turkish drone strikes. It is the same entity the U.S. pressured former UN envoy Staffan de Mistura to include in political settlements, proposing self-administration in its controlled territories.
It is far from coincidental that Turkey maintains ties with Israel despite Gaza’s plight, and is aligned with the U.S., NATO, and the occupying entity, all through the conduit of Jabhat al-Nusra.
• The conflict in Syria is neither a domestic power struggle nor a civil war. Neutrality in this war equates to siding with those promoting this narrative to justify their aggression – namely, the U.S.-Turkish-Israeli alliance. This is why resistance forces, along with Iran and Russia, have unequivocally sided with Syria. The unfolding second Battle for Aleppo appears to be an attempt to reverse the outcomes of the first, banking on the assumption that the Syrian Army and its allies are now fatigued or fractured.
The goal of Nusra-Golani brigades is to achieve what Israel’s Golani Brigade failed to accomplish in South Lebanon. However, just as the resistance in South Lebanon recovered from severe blows to deliver decisive strikes, sending Israel’s Golani into intensive care, Syria and its allies are poised to prevail once again. Israel’s Prime Minister admitted that his army requires rehabilitation. Likewise, the defeat of Nusra-Golani forces will prevent them from regaining their footing in Syria.
For Turkey, this might be the last opportunity to choose its position in the regional alignment. Just as neutrality in the Gaza war is indefensible, ambiguity in the Syrian war is untenable, given Turkey’s unmistakable role.
• Amid the Battle of Aleppo, some Western powers are preparing to offer Syria a proposal: an end to the war in exchange for the internationalisation of its border with Lebanon, thereby tightening the siege on the resistance. This mirrors the 2003 scenario when U.S. Defense Secretary Colin Powell sought to negotiate with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad after the fall of Baghdad, demanding a cessation of support for resistance movements. Just as Assad’s response was a firm rejection then, it remains steadfast today. And just as Syria triumphed then, it will triumph again.
