November 30, 2024
By Nasser Kandil
• The battles over the true narrative of events in northern Syria are fiercer than the actual clashes in its hills, streets, and villages. Arab satellite channels that once led the media war against Syria have now reunited to cover this conflict, despite their divisions over the wars in Gaza and Lebanon.
• Videos and reports flooding social media are primarily components of a psychological and media war. Much of this material is either outdated footage from previous battles or outright fabrications, making it unreliable for constructing an accurate picture of the military positions of the Syrian state forces and the opposition factions, led by Jabhat al-Nusra and al-Qaeda’s branch in Syria, under Turkish patronage. Turkey’s role was made explicit in its official statements blaming the Syrian state for the outbreak of hostilities.
• It is clear that the battlefield remains dynamic. Jabhat al-Nusra and Turkey-backed factions have indeed made gains in Aleppo’s countryside and infiltrated parts of the city’s outskirts. However, the Syrian army and its allies have fortified their defenses and launched counterattacks, successfully reclaiming some areas. As the dust settles, today may reveal a clearer picture, one grounded in undeniable facts rather than media-driven illusions.
• The ongoing war in northern Syria is an extension of the recent conflict in southern Lebanon. Those orchestrating this campaign openly admit they had prepared to strike, taking advantage of Hezbollah’s engagement in the south. Yet the connection between southern Lebanon and northern Syria runs deeper. The U.S. administration, under both Republican and Democratic leaderships, has shown keen interest in securing the occupying entity’s safety, especially after its failure in Lebanon. This focus extends to the Lebanese-Syrian border and Damascus’ stance on supplying arms to the resistance in Lebanon.
When Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared, “Assad is playing with fire”, he signaled that Syria would be the next target. While many anticipated an Israeli assault on Syria, the fatigued and battered Israeli army, reeling from its losses in Lebanon, was unfit for another war. Instead, others took up the task.
• Turkey, hearing President Donald Trump express readiness to abandon Kurdish groups and delegate Syria’s political resolution and counterterrorism to Russia, acted swiftly. It likely struck a deal with Kurdish factions while seizing the opportunity to offer itself as a strategic partner to Washington. By launching an offensive in Aleppo, Turkey sought to accomplish what Russia had resisted: sealing the Syrian-Lebanese border to isolate the resistance. This pressure on the Syrian state aimed to enforce the internationalisation of these borders, with the Aleppo offensive serving as the execution mechanism, spearheaded by terrorist groups like Jabhat al-Nusra.
• Russia, Iran, and the resistance forces understand that their strategic security is existentially tied to Syria’s strength and stability. Thus, regardless of the fluctuating battlefield dynamics, the broader trajectory favours Syria and its allies. While Turkey’s objectives remain tactical and short-term, the resistance and its allies pursue a strategic goal – defending Syria at all costs. The coming developments will undoubtedly affirm this alignment.
