Erdogan: Assad Refused a Summit and Control of Aleppo and Hama Leads to Damascus /  Iran and Russia: Unwavering and Unlimited Support for Syria… and the Doha Meeting as Negotiations Under Fire

 December 07, 2024

The political editor wrote

Everything has become clear following Turkish President Recep Erdogan’s remarks, where he positioned himself as the orchestrator of Jabhat al-Nusra’s campaign against Aleppo and Hama. Erdogan openly declared that the ultimate objective is Damascus, passing through Homs – though he mistakenly claimed it had already fallen to Nusra. He also acknowledged that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s refusal of his invitation to meet was tied to Turkey’s refusal to commit to withdrawing from Syria or reach a prior agreement between the two governments. Such an agreement would need to address Turkey’s security concerns along the Syrian border while affirming Syria’s right to reclaim sovereignty over all its territory, reject any occupation or partition, and demand Turkey’s cooperation in dismantling terrorist groups it had previously supported.

The Nusra-led campaign, prepared and equipped under Turkish sponsorship, validated President Assad’s refusal to meet, as the meeting was clearly aimed to justify its launch. On the ground, it became evident that the setbacks faced by the Syrian army in Aleppo and Hama each had their unique circumstances, but such losses would not be repeated in Homs. Preparations for confrontation in Homs are extensive, involving a significant mobilization of troops and weaponry, bolstered by the high morale noted among Syrian army officers. Thousands of volunteers are also streaming into army recruitment centers to join the frontlines.

Clarity increased further when the Syrian military announced a high-level operation targeting the resources and supply lines of Nusra forces in al-Rastan, Talbiseh, and al-Dar al-Kabira in the Homs countryside. Meanwhile, Moscow and Tehran, analyzing Turkey’s moves, recognized the narrow window for maneuvering and solidified their unequivocal support for Syria, with no limits or hesitation. They view Syria’s fall as a strategic goal whose achievement would shift the battle to Tehran and Moscow themselves.

In parallel, Moscow and Tehran understood from Erdogan’s comments that complexities await the Doha meeting of the Astana participants where negotiations with Turkey will proceed under fire. It is now evident how extensively U.S. and Israeli support, along with Turkish-American coordination, has fueled the Nusra campaign and aligned with its objectives.

On the ground, the predictions of pro-campaign media regarding the fall of Homs have proven futile, and Erdogan’s verbal slip has not advanced the campaign. In response, the Turkish occupation has turned to reviving militants under the Daraa Reconciliation Agreement, pushing them to renounce their agreements, rearm, and redeploy in their pre-reconciliation positions across the province. The objective is clear: compensate for the failure in Homs by securing a victory in Daraa.