The New Middle East Earthquake Begins in Syria: Aftershocks Shake the Region /  Assad in Moscow, Doha Meetings Facilitate Handover in Homs and Damascus

 December 09, 2024

The political editor wrote

Syria has entered uncharted territory following the departure of President Bashar al-Assad to Moscow as a political refugee. The circumstances surrounding his exit remain unclear, though they appear tied to a settlement brokered during Doha meetings, which brought together the Astana trio – Russia, Iran, and Turkey – alongside five Arab states: Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Qatar, and Jordan. These agreements materialised on the ground with Syrian army withdrawals from Homs and Damascus, paving the way for advancing armed factions.

This event has reverberated like a regional earthquake, shrouding Syria’s future in uncertainty. Iran and Hezbollah have exited the country, depriving the resistance of the historic strategic depth Syria once provided, despite the resistance’s self-reliance on domestically manufactured weaponry. Meanwhile, Russia, retaining its bases along Syria’s coast, seems increasingly reliant on Turkish guarantees. However, doubts persist regarding both the sincerity of these assurances and Turkey’s ability to uphold them as Syria’s new governance structure takes shape – particularly with the clear influence of American and Israeli agendas on the emerging political landscape.

In northern Syria, Turkey is no longer the sole player. The United States continues to back the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), while the occupying entity has expressed keen interest in the region. Israeli officials emphasise a “northern distinctiveness” for the Kurds and a “southern distinctiveness” for the Druze. This was starkly reflected in Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to the 1974 disengagement line, where he declared its obsolescence. Under his orders, Israeli forces seized the strategically vital peak of Mount Hermon, expanded into the buffer zone, and initiated patrols across southern Syria, including Daraa and Sweida. Simultaneously, Israeli airstrikes targeted key strategic assets of the Syrian military in Damascus and its countryside.

Across the region, concerns are mounting over the new Middle East earthquake originating in Syria, with aftershocks being felt far and wide. Gulf states openly express fears of political Islam’s resurgence, while Jordan remains wary of plans to displace Palestinians from the West Bank under the guise of an Islamic narrative, raising alarms over the “alternative homeland” project. Egypt, for its part, is deeply concerned about a potential revival of Muslim Brotherhood networks. Similarly, Iraq and Lebanon fear a resurgence of sectarian tensions.