December 10, 2024
By Nasser Kandil
• President Recep Erdogan once dreamed of witnessing this very moment: the armed groups he nurtured and supplied marching into Damascus, becoming the nucleus of a new regime. In his view, this would be a pivotal chapter in his Neo-Ottoman project, as he proudly proclaimed after the fall of Aleppo. Yet, the subdued tone of his victory speech yesterday suggests otherwise. What went wrong?
• I think that Erdogan had envisioned himself as the exclusive broker in Syria, securing American and Israeli interests just as he had offered guarantees to Russia. However, he is gradually realising that both Washington and Tel Aviv have their own agendas that far exceed his presumed role as their agent. This became evident with the emergence of the Kurdish confrontation, backed unequivocally by both the U.S. and Israel. The establishment of a Kurdish statelet now appears to be a prerequisite for the formation of the new state in Damascus – a prospect that poses a direct threat to Turkey’s territorial unity and security.
• Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has revealed his own distinct agenda. Beyond the systematic dismantling of Syria’s military capabilities – a development that neither bothers Erdogan nor undermines his ambitions – Netanyahu has asserted the freedom of Israeli forces to operate across Syria, even near Damascus. He has also reaffirmed that the annexation of the Golan Heights is final and irreversible. This raises the stakes for Erdogan, who had hoped to position himself as the guardian of a new Syrian government, only to find this role bound by conditions that demand not just the surrender of sovereignty, but the abandonment of even the bare minimum of dignity.
• In practical terms, the U.S. and Israel seem to be offering Erdogan a limited share: control over Aleppo and the return of Syrian refugees. In return, Erdogan must concede to their broader vision, effectively subordinating Turkey’s role to Israeli interests and positioning him as the tacit sponsor of a Kurdish state stretching across northern Syria and into Iraq.
• Erdogan, in his quest for power, struck deals with Washington and Tel Aviv at the expense of his supposed allies, believing that such agreements carried the honor of commitment. He conveniently forgot that he had done the same to Russia and Iran when they trusted his assurances. Now, his reality is a joy undone.
