December 11, 2024
By Nasser Kandil
• Shifts are underway in how both the occupying entity’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and the leadership of Hamas approach negotiations aimed at reaching an agreement in Gaza. This agreement would include a prisoner exchange and a ceasefire, making such an outcome more feasible than ever before.
• Netanyahu’s attempt to frame the ceasefire with the resistance in Lebanon as a victory in the eyes of public opinion within the occupying entity failed. However, the sudden escalation of the Syrian scene into a significant regional event took both its proponents and opponents by surprise. This granted Netanyahu the opportunity to project a major triumph through the spectacle of hundreds of airstrikes that decimated the Syrian army’s capabilities. These strikes coincided with the occupying entity’s expansion beyond the Golan Heights into Syrian territory, as well as Iran’s withdrawal from Syria and the disruption of its communication lines with Hezbollah across Syrian soil. Consequently, concerns over concessions paving the way for a Gaza agreement – potentially destabilising Netanyahu’s government or casting him as defeated in public opinion – have diminished.
• On Hamas’s front, despite its capacity to sustain resistance and continued Yemeni support, the Syrian escalation has overshadowed all other developments. This focus is expected to persist for weeks, if not months, particularly if significant repercussions emerge, as widely speculated. As a result, the ongoing massacres by the occupying entity will continue without swaying global public opinion or pressuring Netanyahu to accelerate a resolution. Hamas’s leadership sees no harm in pursuing an agreement with less stringent conditions. With Egyptian and Qatari mediation, compromises might be reached that gradually fulfill Hamas’s objectives, albeit through incremental concessions.
• The proposed formula being discussed allows Netanyahu to appear uncompromising while giving Hamas time to achieve its demands. This formula involves a 60-day ceasefire, a humanitarian-based prisoner exchange, and negotiations toward ending the war and scheduling a withdrawal. The joint committee between Hamas and Fatah to manage Gaza post-war and oversee reconstruction enables Netanyahu to claim that Gaza has not been returned solely to Hamas’s rule.
• U.S. President Joe Biden needs the war in Gaza to end before his term concludes, just as President-elect Donald Trump would prefer to assume office with the war resolved. Netanyahu, meanwhile, seeks to navigate these shifts without antagonising either of them. This is especially crucial amid regional transformations in which Washington, with its deep state aligned with the Democrats, and Trump’s Republican-majority Congress, both play pivotal roles.
