Erdogan Backtracks on Fidan’s Demand to End the SDF, Settling for the PKK’s Expulsion /  Netanyahu Fails to Deter Yemen, Moves Toward Gaza Agreement as a Necessary Step to Halt Yemeni Support

 December 24, 2024

The political editor wrote

Signs of a tripartite Turkish-Kurdish-American agreement have emerged, with Turkish President Recep Erdogan retreating from his foreign minister Hakan Fidan’s demand for Damascus to dissolve the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Erdogan has instead signaled acceptance of the SDF’s proposal to deport foreign fighters in exchange for a ceasefire with Turkey. This shift ties Turkey’s national security to the elimination of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), to which these foreign fighters belong.

This development indicates progress in U.S.-led efforts to stabilise a ceasefire between Turkey and Kurdish armed groups. According to informed sources, Turkey’s acceptance of a lower ceiling for demands relies on a U.S.-Turkish understanding to separate the Kurdish issue into non-Syrian and Syrian components. The departure of non-Syrian fighters would facilitate the ceasefire, while the fate of the SDF would be tied to internal Syrian dialogue. This dialogue addresses the formation of a transitional government, the drafting of a new constitution, and the restructuring of the Syrian army, where Washington aims to integrate its allied Kurdish groups into Damascus’s government, constitution, and military. Simultaneously, the U.S. seeks to secure for these groups semi-autonomous security forces and local governance structures.

In Tel Aviv, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued threats to destroy Yemen’s infrastructure after military setbacks against Yemeni forces. Israeli military experts have expressed skepticism about escalating actions, warning that such measures are unlikely to break Yemen’s resolve and could jeopardise regional security, including the potential closure of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait to oil trade. They also caution against provoking attacks on American military bases in the Gulf, should Netanyahu rely on them for airstrikes to mitigate the logistical challenges of conducting raids over 2,000 kilometers away without mid-air refueling.

Observers within the occupied territories link Netanyahu’s acknowledgment of progress in Gaza negotiations to Israel’s failure to deliver a decisive blow to Yemen. This failure leaves a ceasefire in Gaza as the only viable path to alleviate Yemeni pressure.

In Lebanon, questions about sovereignty are intensifying alongside escalating Israeli violations in the south. With half the ceasefire agreement’s implementation deadline elapsed, Israel has withdrawn from only a small fraction of the areas it is obligated to vacate. While Israeli public broadcasting claims delays are due to the Lebanese Army’s slow advance, local sources suggest that the army often faces multiple attempts to secure positions, succeeding only after weeks and with intervention from UNIFIL and the review committee. Even then, Israeli forces frequently execute only partial withdrawals.

Free Patriotic Movement leader and MP Gebran Bassil questioned the silence surrounding these continued violations, asking, “How can we remain voiceless in the face of such a blatant affront to national dignity?”