December 27, 2024
By Nasser Kandil
• According to the statements of the occupying entity’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the rules of engagement with Yemen have shifted. He announced a broad campaign targeting Yemen, resembling an open war, with the airstrikes on Sana’a Airport and Hodeidah Port marking the beginning of this campaign.
• Officials and experts within the occupying entity acknowledge two key realities. First, there is no viable strategy to subdue Yemen or break its will to force it to abandon the option of confrontation with the entity. Yemen possesses a courageous leadership, an ideologically driven armed force, and widespread popular support for the cause of Palestine. Second, there is little hope of neutralising Yemen’s military capabilities, which have proven to be both sophisticated and highly effective, capable of striking deep into the entity’s territory while continuing to protect its achievement of preventing ships bound for the entity from traversing the Red Sea.
• Netanyahu and his officials promise a campaign of collective punishment against Yemen. This campaign targets military sites, civilian infrastructure, and may include assassinations akin to those conducted in Lebanon, or even massacres reminiscent of Gaza. The question now is: how will Yemen respond to such a war?
• Yemen holds numerous cards of power that it has yet to play. While it has refrained from escalating, an open war will leave no room for hesitation. In response, Yemen could escalate its targeting within the entity, reciprocating in kind. Heavily populated areas, power stations, oil storage facilities, and gas extraction platforms will inevitably become legitimate targets for Yemeni missiles. On one side stands a prepared and resilient Yemeni front willing to bear the costs; on the other, a fragile internal front within the entity, where public pressure could force the government to agree to a truce with Gaza to end the war and halt Yemen strikes.
• Yemen also recognises that the entity’s actions are backed by the United States. Without American political and operational partnership, the entity would lack the capacity to execute such actions. Thus, Yemen will not hesitate to consider American bases and warships as legitimate targets. All of these assets fall within Yemen’s missile range, and Washington must bear the consequences of its support for the war waged by the entity against Yemen.
• Yemen possesses the ability to close vital waterways, including the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and, if necessary, the Strait of Hormuz. Such a move would paralyse global trade, particularly the oil and gas sectors, leading to an unprecedented surge in energy prices and triggering collapses in global markets, stock exchanges, and the energy-dependent economies of Europe, which have already lost access to Russian supplies and now rely on resources passing through the Red Sea.
• An open war against Yemen is, in essence, a semi-global war in its consequences.
