January 13, 2025
Nasser Kandil
• The martyrdom of Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah delivered a shock beyond what the resistance’s supporters across the Arab and Islamic worlds could absorb. This sense of loss deepened further with the fall of the Syrian regime, a crucial pillar of the resistance axis supported by Iran, Russia, and the resistance itself. These twin blows, occurring in rapid succession, created a profound emotional and psychological weight, overwhelming any popular base’s ability to process or recover. In this atmosphere, even mentioning a victory for the resistance feels counter to the prevailing mood. The environment will likely need months, if not years, to reconcile with one loss of this magnitude – let alone two occurring so close together. Within the context of war, where gains and losses must ultimately be measured, one must ask: what kind of achievements could ever balance, let alone outweigh, these losses?
• Approaching this war with a cool and rational mind requires analysing each setback within its specific context. Their occurrence does not negate the continuation of the struggle nor the need to understand the principles of victory and defeat within this ongoing conflict, regardless of the sacrifices required. This is the largest war the region has ever witnessed, involving multiple Arab fronts against an alliance fully backed by the entire military might of the United States. The occupying entity has fought with a survivalist desperation, transcending the norms of its past wars in both duration and the scale of its losses.
This war, filled with surprises, has shocked both sides. The Americans and Israelis were unprepared for events such as the Al-Aqsa Flood operation, Yemen’s unexpected strategic maneuvers, or the resilience of Lebanon’s resistance despite the assassination of its leaders, the destruction of its infrastructure, and the targeting of its supportive environment.
Conversely, the resistance faced its own unexpected challenges: lethal assassinations and security operations designed to cripple it, the rapid collapse of the regime in Syria, and the overwhelming silence from both Arab governments and populations in the face of a live-streamed inferno consuming Palestinian children, women, hospitals, and schools in Gaza. This silence contrasted sharply with the reactions in Western streets and governments, where public outcry emerged, yet it failed to echo meaningfully within the Arab world.
Furthermore, the resistance was surprised by the occupying entity’s ability to endure over a year of losses – thousands of dead and injured, strikes deep within its territory, and mass displacement spanning tens of kilometers.
Both sides have endured surprises and losses, yet also achieved gains. The critical question remains: as this war approaches its conclusion, how can the balance of power be assessed beyond emotional, psychological, and moral loss?
The resistance did not fully achieve its promise of deterring the occupying entity through its missile arsenal. However, its missiles and drones succeeded in imposing new equations, forcing the entity to negotiate terms for a ceasefire on the Lebanese front. The resistance established a novel form of deterrence: Beirut’s key infrastructure – its airport, power plants, and oil depots – remained intact because the entity feared inevitable retaliation against Tel Aviv and its equivalent facilities. While the entity destroyed much of the civilian infrastructure in Lebanon’s southern suburbs, Bekaa Valley, and Gaza, it failed to achieve its objectives. The people stood by their resistance, and the leadership held firm to its strategic choices despite immense sacrifices.
• The resistance entered this war with the strategic understanding that armed groups on the borders of occupied Palestine pose an existential threat to the entity. Despite efforts to portray the ceasefires in Lebanon and the anticipated one in Gaza as victories for the entity, its leaders and military know that these agreements solidify the resistance’s existential threat in both regions. Moreover, they recognise that in any future war, the entity will be unable to replicate the strategic leverage it enjoyed this time. The entity’s dependence on full American military participation highlights its inability to protect itself independently, leaving its existential vulnerability exposed – a condition that is neither adaptable nor repairable. In contrast, the resistance’s losses, while significant, remain survivable as long as its forces, weapons, and popular base endure.
• This war has ended any viable prospect of the occupying army waging a ground offensive. The events in Gaza and southern Lebanon demonstrated that resistance forces dominate these theaters, thwarting any meaningful ground gains. In Gaza, despite occupation, the resistance maintained its activity in every corner, while in Lebanon, the entity suffered disastrous failures, unable to make any substantial territorial advances despite deploying its entire army. Elite units sustained heavy casualties, and even reserve forces failed to restore combat effectiveness, prompting the entity’s prime minister to call for a ceasefire to rebuild the military. Yet the root cause of the ground failures, showcased in the collapse of morale, remains irreparable, as evidenced in every detail of the wars in Lebanon and Gaza.
• Yemen offered an unparalleled model of military resilience and strategic ingenuity. Its hypersonic missiles rendered the entity’s air defenses, including the advanced U.S. THAAD system, ineffective. Over the course of more than a year, Yemen defied American deterrence in the Red Sea, a region critical to Pentagon maritime control strategies. U.S. fleets and aircraft carriers failed to regain control, as Yemen asserted complete dominance over commercial shipping. Washington was unable to breach this sovereignty even once, with Yemen’s combination of bravery, technological prowess, and widespread popular support fortifying its leadership’s decisions.
• Placing these benchmarks against the backdrop of this war reveals a historic collision of two immense forces. While much has been shattered, a new history is emerging. The resistance has proven to be a force that shapes history itself, ensuring that Palestine stands as an unresolved cause that cannot be bypassed or eliminated. The resistance has demonstrated that it is an invincible, legendary force – one that neither war nor time can erase.
