January 17, 2025
By Nasser Kandil
• Today, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian are set to sign a strategic partnership treaty between Russia and Iran. This agreement has been meticulously prepared over several years, with thousands of hours of work invested by experts who crafted its provisions and represented its various fields of cooperation.
• Both Russian and Iranian officials deny that the timing of the signing – on the eve of Donald Trump’s inauguration as U.S. president – is deliberate. However, American analysts draw multiple connections between the two events. Chief among these is the perception that this partnership signals Moscow’s view of Washington’s overtures for a settlement over Ukraine as a ruse aimed at dismantling the alliance between Russia, China, and Iran. Additionally, the timing suggests to Washington that Moscow and Tehran are asserting that any potential understanding with the U.S. will not come at the expense of their strategic relationship.
• The treaty’s timing is also significant, occurring forty days after the fall of their allied regime in Damascus. This underlines the determination of the two allies to continue consolidating their sources of strength. It conveys that losing a round in their confrontation with Washington will not deter them from pursuing their chosen path. Their shared experience with the U.S. suggests that agreements with Washington are only durable when the U.S. perceives itself as weak. Whenever the balance of power shifts, Washington has shown a tendency to renege on agreements, as exemplified by the fate of the Iran nuclear deal. The U.S. often reneges the moment it senses its partner in the agreement gaining strength or itself becoming weaker.
• The partnership encompasses numerous provisions, most notably the enhancement of trade, the establishment of joint transportation networks by land, sea, and air, the exchange of technical expertise, and its further development. Russian and Iranian officials dismiss claims that the agreement constitutes a mutual defense treaty. Instead, they emphasise its defense-related components as being limited to cooperation in counterterrorism and technical collaboration in military industries. Ironically, this aspect is what most alarms Washington. While both nations possess sufficient self-defense capabilities in any war, their joint military-technical cooperation accelerates weapons development by combining their expertise. Previous advancements, particularly in missile and drone technologies, have already caused significant concern in Washington.
• Despite efforts by some to downplay the event’s significance, this agreement marks a transformative moment. Its impact is underscored by the anxiety it stirs in Washington and in the incoming U.S. administration, just days away from taking office.
