Netanyahu’s Government and Mini-Cabinet Approve Gaza Agreement, Ben Gvir Exits Coalition / Macron in Beirut: Reaffirming France’s Role and Interests, Calling for Government Consensus

 January 18, 2025

The political editor wrote

Itamar Ben Gvir has exited Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, yet the government itself remains intact. However, the settlements in the West Bank are now effectively excluded from the government’s agenda, even as Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich temporarily stays on. The absence of a strategic vision for the occupying entity’s future has laid the groundwork for further rounds of confrontation. The project to eliminate the resistance in Lebanon and Gaza has failed, leaving a fragile coexistence based on the temporary success of dismantling key resistance capabilities and establishing a formula that limits direct threats to the entity’s security.

However, no existential safety net has been secured, as the resilience of resistance movements has proven capable of recovery as long as their core remains intact. This has compelled the entity to accept ceasefire agreements requiring withdrawal from occupied territories. The failure to displace the indigenous population or expand settlement projects further compounds the situation. What the entity was able to achieve in this war is unlikely to be repeated in a future war, and what it failed to accomplish will remain unattainable. This leaves the occupying entity facing existential threats for which none of its leaders have viable solutions, while global consensus increasingly leans toward political resolutions rather than war.

Acknowledging Palestinian rights and recognising a Palestinian state as part of a solution is perceived as an existential threat by the entity, reflected in the Knesset’s legislation to that effect.

In Lebanon, French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to underscored France’s determination to maintain influence and secure its interests amidst declining clout in Africa and rejection in Syria due to Turkish opposition. Lebanon serves as a potential gateway for France to re-establish itself, particularly with an eye toward trade platforms and future reconstruction projects in Syria.

However, Lebanese expectations from France center on two key areas. First, enforcing the implementation of Resolution 1701, especially to ensure the acceleration of the occupying entity’s withdrawal and an end to aerial violations of Lebanese sovereignty. Such measures would reassure southern residents that the area south of the Litani River is not a fragile security zone but rather a stable region for investment and safe living – a reality sustained by the resistance’s deterrence model from 2006 to 2024. The second, is the issue of oil and gas exploration in Lebanon’s economic zone, particularly in blocks allocated to TotalEnergies, awaiting the company’s return to action.

On the political front, Macron encouraged consensus to expedite the formation of an inclusive government, paving the way for a smooth start to the new presidential term. The initial meeting between Prime Minister-designate Nawaf Salam and Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri exuded cautious optimism, as they reportedly covered half the distance toward an agreement. The final decision on whether the Amal-Hezbollah duo will participate in or boycott the government hinges on pending details yet to be clarified.