January 21, 2025
Nasser Kandil
• In his first term, Donald Trump lacked a clear vision for realising his dream of transitioning from “Make America Great Again” to a “Greater America”. He mistakenly believed that the popular support he garnered for dismantling the financial and military globalisation legacy – at the expense of domestic production and services – would provide sufficient momentum to escape the pressures of the deep state, including the Pentagon, intelligence agencies, State Department, and think tanks. However, he found himself compelled to implement aspects of the Democratic globalisation project, with few exceptions.
Yet, the apparent failure of this globalisation project to deliver achievements at home and abroad offered Trump a dual opportunity: to return to power with stronger momentum fueled by the project’s failures, and to reassess, plan, and craft a clear roadmap.
• The first evident step in Trump’s speech is the near-complete omission of international issues. He made no mention of the war in Ukraine, traditional warnings to Iran about nuclear weapons, unconditional support for “Israel” or confronting Russia and China. The sole reference to China was about the Panama Canal, noting, “We gave it to Panama, not China”. His speech was almost entirely focused on domestic issues.
This marked a clear pivot toward compensating the military-industrial complex – the deep state’s cornerstone – by shifting from encouraging foreign wars and their profits to announcing a $2 trillion project over five years to create a missile defense shield protecting America from missile threats. This initiative involves advanced technology research following the failures of Patriot missiles and the THAAD system, as demonstrated by their inability to intercept Yemeni missiles targeting Tel Aviv. It envisions deploying thousands of air defense batteries, sufficient ammunition stockpiles, and trained crews across the United States. This deal serves as the foundation for reconciling with the military-industrial complex, while another grand project – Mars exploration – appeases intercontinental missile and arms manufacturers.
• Trump’s vision harmonises “America First” with globalisation by recognising the need for time to rebuild domestic supply chains to replace reliance on Chinese imports sustaining daily American consumption. Meanwhile, his economic recovery plan focuses on the immediate revival of shale oil and gas markets, removing all production, tax, and environmental restrictions, coupled with a second withdrawal from climate agreements. This strategy promises swift reductions in fuel prices for American consumers and transportation-dependent goods.
• Shale oil and gas become the driving forces of Trump’s strategy, extending beyond domestic markets. With America’s industrial base hollowed out by the outsourcing of major manufacturing to China, Korea, Vietnam, and elsewhere, the U.S. will lean heavily on exporting shale oil and gas while awaiting the revival of its factories. The target market is clear: Western allies. The equation is simple – military protection in exchange for purchasing American shale energy, starting with Europe.
For oil-producing allies, particularly Arab states, Trump’s new formula demands adjustments. They must reduce production to accommodate incoming American supplies without driving prices down and avoid competing with American shale in European markets. The message is clear: “Our bases are not free”.
• Trump’s plan doesn’t aim for global territorial expansion but regional integration, encompassing Canada, Mexico, and potentially Greenland. Observers may note that resolving economic crises will come at the allies’ expense. Expansion is now about redistributing resources and redrawing maps within the Western bloc itself.
Trump’s approach abandons the idea of maximising collective Western influence or shared economic victories. Instead, it prioritises redistributing revenues among Western allies under a “winner-takes-all” model. Allies must brace for economic conflict, including tariff wars launched by Washington to make them pay for America’s resurgence.
In essence, Trump’s roadmap for a new America seeks to capitalise on globalisation’s failures to craft a domestic revival strategy that positions the U.S. as both an energy powerhouse and the dominant player in a reconfigured Western order.
