January 22, 2025
Nasser Kandil
• Neither the Americans nor the occupying entity offer definitive answers about the period following the sixty-day timeline outlined in the ceasefire agreement for Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon beyond the Blue Line. Conflicting statements and media narratives surround the question of what happens on the sixty-first day. Optimistic accounts suggest the occupation forces should have completed their withdrawal but stop short of certainty. Others argue for an extension, citing the need for additional time to finalise the pullout.
• The Lebanese state, through the president, a former army commander, emphasises the necessity of withdrawal within the agreed timeline, viewing any delay as a threat to stability. Yet, the state acknowledges its limited options, constrained to lodging complaints and making demands, even if they prove futile. Meanwhile, Israel’s unchecked aggression has caused destruction far exceeding that of the war days, particularly in front-line villages, resulting in Lebanese casualties – both martyrs and wounded, and inflicting humiliation on all Lebanese, especially southerners. Drone and warplane incursions persist over Beirut and beyond. As the final day of the timeline approaches, there is a real possibility that the occupation’s violations will continue. In such a case, the state’s response will likely involve further appeals to international mediators to press the occupation government to comply with the agreement, in hopes of safeguarding Lebanon’s fragile recovery from Israeli disruption.
• As the force that liberated and defended the land before the ceasefire agreement, the resistance accepted the sixty-day timeline, deviating from the letter of Resolution 1701. During this period, it limited its response to warnings against Israeli provocations while refraining from direct action, reminding the state that its current passive stance – relinquishing the right to self-defense while the occupiers exploit the agreement to justify aggression – is not a model for national protection. The resistance, however, acknowledges its silence was strategic. It needed the sixty days to regroup after sustaining severe blows, while also avoiding internal Lebanese criticism that sought to blame it for any disruptions in the ceasefire’s implementation.
• The resistance’s approach for the sixty-first day now appears determined. After previously asserting its right to respond to violations at its chosen time – before or after the sixty-day period, statements have intensified, signaling that the sixty-first day belongs to the resistance, following sixty days ceded to the occupation. If the occupation fails to withdraw its forces beyond the Blue Line, the resistance will act. This signals not only its recovery and reorganisation but also a readiness to resume its role. The resistance recognises the futility of restraint against an emboldened enemy, as evidenced by unchecked Israeli aggression in Syria. Despite Damascus’s new government avoiding provocations, the occupation has exploited the situation, whether through the continuous bombardment of the Syrian army’s capabilities, or through its military units unleashed incursions into Syrian territory.
• The resistance asserts that the sixty-first day will differ from the sixtieth. Increasingly bold statements from Hezbollah leaders hint that the Secretary-General may issue a direct, cautionary address before the deadline expires. Such warnings could compel the occupation to withdraw, leaving some to credit American pressure for the compliance. Yet, if the occupation remains and the resistance retaliates, critics will decry the use of arms as reckless. Should the occupation persist and the resistance take no action, detractors will question the need for arms altogether.
• The resistance’s predicament with its critics mirrors the parable of Juha, his son, and their donkey, endlessly criticised, no matter the course of action. Yet, the resistance remains steadfast, focused on what must be done rather than attempting to appease detractors.
