January 27, 2025
By Nasser Kandil
• Two intertwined narratives accompanied the ceasefire in Gaza. The first claims that U.S. President Donald Trump deserves credit for brokering the agreement, asserting that without him, Benjamin Netanyahu would have continued crushing Gaza, its people, and its resistance until they raised white flags and declared surrender. The second narrative suggests that the occupying army succeeded in dismantling the primary forces of the resistance, particularly al-Qassam Brigades, leaving behind scattered, insignificant groups that no longer pose a military threat.
• Barely a week into the ceasefire’s implementation, the second phase of the prisoner exchange arrived. This occasion transformed into a spectacle as thousands of al-Qassam fighters appeared across Gaza, parading in its streets, squares, and neighborhoods. Their disciplined and organised presence prompted Hebrew media to mock Netanyahu’s claim of “absolute victory”, sarcastically remarking, “Yes, there is an absolute victory – it’s Hamas’s”.
• By the end of the first week of the agreement, President Trump revealed he had contacted the Jordanian king, urging him to absorb part of Gaza’s population, and intended to make a similar request to the Egyptian president. Trump’s involvement in plans to displace Gaza’s population underscores his alignment with Netanyahu, revealing them as partners rather than adversaries. Together, they were defeated in Gaza’s war, just as they failed in Yemen’s war. The Gaza ceasefire emerged as their sole escape from the war of attrition in Yemen and an opportunity to end the paralysing exhaustion suffered by the occupying army – especially in the absence of any roadmap to victory after 16 months of conflict. Meanwhile, the resistance in Gaza demonstrated it had rebuilt its capabilities, preparing itself for a prolonged confrontation.
• Sixteen months later, Gaza’s war has definitively spoken to the balance of victory and defeat. The occupying army failed miserably in achieving four key objectives: Firstly, on recovering prisoners without a deal, where instead they were forced to accept a humiliating exchange agreement that undermined the occupying entity’s security. Secondly, on dismantling the military structure of the resistance, where the demonstration of Al-Qassam forces during the prisoner exchange shattered claims of military superiority. Thirdly, on reoccupying Gaza, even partially. Instead, Netanyahu found himself compelled to sign a complete withdrawal from Gaza as a prerequisite for an urgently needed deal. Lastly, on forcing population displacement, where efforts to expel Gaza’s inhabitants – particularly from the north – failed to secure a demographic balance favouring Jewish dominance, stalling settlement expansion and similar plans in the West Bank.
• Gaza has triumphed – period.
