February 04, 2025
By Nasser Kandil
• Despite widespread speculation about a possible return to war in Gaza or a delay in the withdrawal of occupation forces from southern Lebanon, regional observers are closely watching the upcoming meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Donald Trump to determine the final trajectory of events.
• The push for extending the occupation and escalating the war does not emerge in a vacuum within the occupying entity. Beyond ideological factions committed to the eradication of Palestinians and the expansion of the occupation, there is a broader sentiment of defeat sweeping through Israeli society. This is especially evident in the images accompanying each prisoner exchange in Gaza, where Palestinian fighters exude strength and resilience, and in the sight of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians returning to northern Gaza despite the devastation. A similar dynamic is unfolding in southern Lebanon, where popular resistance has fiercely opposed the occupation’s presence in border villages, displaying extraordinary bravery and a spirit of sacrifice, amplified by resistance media and the images of martyred fighters. The prevailing sense of despair among Israelis, from the general public to elites and political leaders, was summed up in a newspaper caricature that mockingly responded to Netanyahu’s claims of “absolute victory” with the retort: “Yes, but for Hamas”.
• The room for Netanyahu to reverse the ceasefire agreement – whether in Gaza or Lebanon – is increasingly narrow. Any attempt to reignite the war is unlikely to convince anyone, either within the entity or beyond, except for those driven by blind fervor rather than strategic calculations. The resources, psychological mobilisation, international backing, and military, logistical, and financial capabilities that sustained the war effort are irreplaceable. If all of that yielded only the current outcome, any renewed military campaign would undoubtedly achieve even less. The army is weaker, morale is lower, society is exhausted, the world has grown weary of endless deadlines to “win the war”, and Western public opinion is no longer what it once was. Meanwhile, the internal Israeli public has lost faith in its military, political leadership, and even the Iron Dome.
• In Washington, a new consensus is emerging: military force is no longer Israel’s insurance policy – what it truly needs is Arab and Islamic legitimacy, embodied in normalisation with Saudi Arabia. Progress on agreements concerning Gaza and Lebanon has become a prerequisite for negotiations, with the establishment of a Palestinian state as their ultimate goal. As Netanyahu heads to discuss the future of the war, some Israeli commentators are already describing what he may return with as nothing short of a “suicidal peace plan”.
