Trump Shifts Toward Negotiations With Moscow at Europe’s and Ukraine’s Expense /  Netanyahu Backs Down From Threats, Prepares to Meet Hamas’s Demands and Resume the Exchange

 February 13, 2025

The political editor wrote

After three weeks of power displays, U.S. President Donald Trump has decided to get to work. He picked up the phone, called Russian President Vladimir Putin, and opened a negotiation channel on Ukraine and ending the war. According to U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, the proposed framework rests on two pillars: first, that Ukraine’s NATO membership is unrealistic, and second, that returning to the 2014 borders is impossible. Trump also dispatched Treasury Secretary Scott Bissett to Ukraine, declaring that Washington had spent $500 billion on Ukraine and must recover that investment through deals in the rare metals sector. Speaking to Fox News, Trump even suggested that Ukraine might one day become part of Russia. In characteristic fashion, he immediately formed a dedicated negotiating team for talks with Moscow, unlike the other issues he had raised as mere smoke screens to obscure his move to negotiate with Putin. Trump revealed that he tasked Secretary of State Marco Rubio, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, National Security Advisor Michael Waltz, and his Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff with “leading the negotiations, which I strongly believe will be successful”.

In the region, developments surrounding Gaza remain in flux. The ceasefire is at risk of collapse following Trump’s threats to unleash hell unless Hamas releases all prisoners by Saturday, as well as his Gaza displacement project and the pressure he’s exerting on Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia to participate in it. Hamas, undeterred by Trump’s threats, which were initially welcomed by Netanyahu’s government, has held its ground. Israeli backtracking now suggests that the resistance is on the verge of securing its second major victory, proving that the ceasefire was the result of Israel’s inability to continue the war. Israeli media reports indicate that the government is willing to proceed with the exchange deal if Hamas releases the three prisoners scheduled for release on Saturday. Concurrent reports suggest that Israel has begun allowing heavy machinery and prefabricated homes into Gaza – items it had previously blocked, prompting Hamas to suspend the exchange.

Arab responses to Trump’s proposals, particularly his push for Arab involvement in Gaza’s displacement, are shaping up to be a focal point at the upcoming Arab League summit later this month. The summit is expected to solidify the stance already expressed by Egypt and Saudi Arabia, which firmly reject displacement, settlement expansion, and land annexation while upholding the establishment of a Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital. Arab normalisation with Israel, they maintain, must be contingent on the realisation of a Palestinian state, not just vague promises of one.

In Lebanon, attention is focused on the government’s efforts to finalise its ministerial statement and prepare for a parliamentary confidence vote. However, all eyes will turn to next Tuesday, when the extended ceasefire in the south is set to expire. Israel has already signaled its intent to extend the ceasefire once again. After Al-Hadath aired reports claiming that an agreement had been reached to extend the truce beyond Ramadan, a statement issued by the office of Speaker Nabih Berri said: “What was attributed by Al-Hadath channel regarding sources on an agreement between Berri and Hezbollah to extend the ceasefire for a second time is purely fabricated and entirely false”.