February 13, 2025
Nasser Kandil
• Just as the Democratic administration of President Barack Obama and its European allies failed to contain Iran and neutralise its support for resistance movements through the lure of nuclear deal revenues – forcing the deep state to call upon the unruly, unconventional Donald Trump to scrap the agreement – The Democratic administration under President Joe Biden failed in its plan to lure Russia into launching a war on Ukraine through escalating provocations and the disruption of the Minsk Agreements, betting on Russia’s downfall through a “killer package” of economic blockade and banking sanctions. Instead, Russia turned the challenge into an opportunity, weathered the crisis, regained the initiative, and ultimately secured victory in a war that the U.S. and its European allies had failed to prepare for militarily. Their miscalculation became evident as stockpiles were depleted and they proved incapable of supplying Ukraine with the necessary munitions once the “killer package” failed to bring Russia down. Faced with this reality, the deep state once again turned to the unruly, unconventional Donald Trump – to end the war and redefine the balance of power with Russia at Europe’s expense.
• With negotiations with Russia over Ukraine now underway, and Trump’s team being dispatched to Moscow – including Steve Witkoff, the negotiator of the Gaza agreement, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, responsible for Canada, Mexico, and Panama – alongside the expedited appointment of Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard for a role in the negotiations, it is increasingly clear that Trump’s foreign policy agenda is centered on ending the conflict with Russia and carving out spheres of influence at Europe’s expense. This strategy is based on recognising Russia’s new international status. The displays of American power against allies – from Canada to Mexico, Panama, and Denmark – along with the public rift with Europe over trade balances, NATO funding, and energy markets, and the crises manufactured with Jordan, Egypt, and even Saudi Arabia over an impractical Gaza resettlement plan, were nothing more than preparatory fireworks. Their purpose was to craft the image of a strongman who cannot be accused of weakness when striking a deal with Russia – allowing the U.S. to emerge from the war without the stain of defeat.
• Trump’s high-stakes maneuvers with Panama, Mexico, Canada, and Denmark, including threats of military action, from seizing the Panama Canal by force to annexing Canada and an invasion of Greenland – prying it from Denmark’s grasp, to pressuring Mexico to absorb millions of deported migrants, reveal a pattern. When these countries stood firm and did not cave to the intimidation, they secured favourable outcomes: Panama retained U.S. recognition of its control over the canal, Canada and Mexico settled for border cooperation, and the threats dissipated into thin air. This confirms two key truths: first, that these threats were merely theatrical displays paving the way for a negotiated settlement with Russia under the guise of strength; and second, that those who resist panic and stand their ground can dictate terms to Washington and Trump himself.
• The Arab world finds itself in a similar position to Panama, Canada, Mexico, and Denmark – facing the test of fear and resilience. Trump’s proposal to forcibly relocate Gaza’s population, now wielded as a bargaining chip against Arab states, is even more fantastical than invading Greenland, reclaiming the Panama Canal, or turning Canada into an American state. Encouragingly, Arab responses suggest a rational understanding of the balance of power and a refusal to succumb to intimidation. While an initial White House photo-op with the Jordanian king projected an image of compliance, subsequent statements swiftly corrected that impression – exposing a calculated U.S. strategy of humiliation, coercion, and forced submission. However, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s cancellation of his Washington visit, instead instructing his Foreign Minister Badr Abd al-Aty to formally reject Egypt’s participation in any Gaza resettlement plan, along with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s firm and repeated stance – beginning with the Saudi Foreign Ministry’s dawn statement rejecting Trump’s displacement proposal in Netanyahu’s presence, culminating in the Saudi Cabinet’s declaration rejecting all forms of displacement, annexation, and settlement while reaffirming commitment to a sovereign Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital – are signs that raise expectations regarding the Arab side’s awareness of its ability to thwart the American maneuver aimed at securing gains to compensate the occupying entity for its loss of the war.
