February 21, 2025
Nasser Kandil
• Without the groundwork of a grand strategist like Henry Kissinger, who spearheaded U.S. rapprochement with China in the late 1970s, U.S.-Russian rapprochement came in a single move by President Donald Trump. This could be followed by a similar U.S.-China rapprochement, especially after Trump’s warnings to Taiwan, which echo his warnings to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Those warnings culminated in Trump accusing Zelensky of dictatorship, recklessness, and foolishness. Trump believes Taiwan has usurped America’s position in high-tech semiconductor manufacturing and that the time has come to reclaim it. Thus, without prior signals, America abruptly reversed course, from prioritising confrontation with Russia and China across political, economic, and military spheres to pursuing settlements and negotiations with both nations. This shift aligns with the priority of focusing inward on domestic affairs, including reducing the arms race, whether by halving military budgets or halting nuclear weapons production, ultimately aiming for gradual disarmament agreements.
• America’s failure to achieve strategic breakthroughs on the global stage was evident, and its internal decline was even more pronounced. The debate over whether American retrenchment could facilitate the emergence of a new, balanced world order had largely been settled in favour of continued small wars at the expense of allies. The U.S. deep state – heavily influenced by financial globalisation blocs and military-industrial conglomerates, leaned toward sustaining conflict. Then came Trumpism, which some try to dismiss as mere political theatrics, a phenomenon that masters the art of provocation and posturing before ultimately striking a deal and touting it as a major achievement. But this overlooks a deeper reality: what is happening reflects a strategic shift within the deep state itself – an attempt to prevent systemic collapse akin to the Soviet Union’s disintegration. In Trump, the deep state found its vehicle for this mission, shifting the narrative from “America is weak” to “Joe Biden was a fool”.
• Trump redefined America’s vital sphere within a geographic rectangle spanning Canada, Mexico, Panama, Greenland, and Alaska. He anchored his economic policy in the oil and gas sectors, restructured foreign spending by cutting back on soft power tools and funding for colour revolutions, and slashed military expenditure. His domestic agenda revolved around overhauling bloated state institutions, imposing tariffs, and redirecting spending toward revitalising industry and agriculture – aiming to erase the budget deficit, generate a surplus, and begin tackling the national debt before the financial system reached a breaking point.
• Bargaining over allies is now an open-ended game, with Ukraine as the starting point, Europe next, and Taiwan to follow. Meanwhile, America is tightening its grip on its closest allies, from Canada to Mexico, Panama, and Greenland. We are witnessing the rise of “America: The Great” instead of “America: The Greatest”. This is an America of protectionism, not free trade; an America competing in oil and gas markets, not championing renewables; an America rooted in conservatism and tradition, not one driven by progressive social movements that promote moral and cultural erosion under the guise of absolute freedom. Simply stepping back from reshaping the world in line with ideological experiments, and redirecting funds from global media manipulation to domestic development, is itself a significant victory for the world’s nations.
• We are entering the phase of shaping a new global order. Yet, our region remains trapped in the equations of the old world, where American brutality remains fully aligned with the occupying entity. The ongoing changes overwhelmingly serve Israeli interests, forcing our peoples to continue making sacrifices to keep the Palestinian cause alive. Despite all the sacrifices made, they have not yet been enough to alter the behavior of Arab rulers. However, the war that engulfed the region has left its mark: the occupying entity is now too weak to wage wars, and America is unprepared for military entanglements. The achievements of Arab resistance forces have laid the groundwork for the next phase of regional politics, even if the overall picture remains clouded in uncertainty.
