March 03, 2025
By Nasser Kandil
• It is evident that the ceasefire agreement in Gaza is on shaky ground. Negotiations for the second phase were supposed to begin on the 16th day of the first phase, but that deadline has long passed. The first phase ended two days ago on the 42nd day, yet no negotiations have begun. Instead, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has publicly declared that he will not proceed to the second phase.
• Netanyahu’s proposed alternative is to extend the first phase indefinitely, effectively overturning the agreement and pushing for an alternative deal, something the resistance cannot accept.
• Within days or weeks, it will become clear that there is no near-term prospect for a new agreement. Will Netanyahu then return to war? It has been repeatedly said that he never wanted the agreement in the first place and only accepted it under pressure from then-U.S. President Donald Trump.
• The recurring disputes over prisoner exchanges during the first phase revealed the resistance’s firm stance on adhering strictly to the agreement and defending the Palestinians’ rights enshrined in it. The resistance even halted exchanges in protest of Israeli violations. Trump, in response, threatened “hell” if the resistance did not release all captives at once, but it did not comply. Strangely, despite his supposed eagerness to resume the war, Netanyahu did not seize this opportunity, even with Trump’s backing. Why?
• The answer is clear: Netanyahu agreed to the ceasefire because he recognised that the war had reached a dead end. His forces had failed to retrieve the captives by military means and had also failed to inflict decisive blows on the resistance. Meanwhile, the war was exhausting the Israeli army and, at the same time, the continued captivity of Israeli hostages was fueling internal political unrest. Under these pressures, proceeding with the ceasefire became an inevitable choice.
• Resuming the war now would mean facing a resistance that is stronger than it was on October 7. It has reorganised its ranks and no longer needs to fight a defensive retreat to avoid destruction. Instead, it will fight in a manner reminiscent of the battles in Lebanon’s southern villages: holding the line, preventing Israeli advances, and inflicting heavy losses. The Israeli military is no longer the same force that moved on October 8; it has suffered substantial losses in both manpower and morale.
• For Netanyahu, war does not seem to be a viable option. Instead, he appears focused on tightening the siege, maintaining a ceasefire devoid of any political substance, even without further prisoner exchanges, and prolonging the current stalemate for as long as possible. His goal is to reach the upcoming elections without his coalition collapsing, as Bezalel Smotrich has threatened to withdraw if the government agrees to end the war and fully withdraw, as stipulated in the second phase of the ceasefire agreement.
